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Manager Expectations

currencies 2

IPE Expectations Indicator: April 2018

April 2018 (magazine)By

The influx of pessimism in the prior survey has not carried over into this month

equities 3

IPE Expectations Indicator: March 2018

March 2018 (magazine)By

What does one expect to happen when positive sentiment declines across the board? What we know is that near universal sentiment movements do not happen often

feb 18 expectations index

IPE Expectations Indicator: February 2018

February 2018 (magazine)By

Given the similarities between the February 2018 and February 2017 expectations surveys, it may be appropriate to wish everyone a ‘happy same year’

ipe expectations indicator january 2018

IPE Expectations Indicator: January 2018

January 2018 (magazine)By

It would be an understatement to say the shine has left the US equity market, given this month’s manager expectation submissions

ipe expectations indicator december 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator: December 2017

December 2017 (Magazine)By

This survey has rarely found such consensus among asset managers as we see in this month’s survey. Virtually no manager expects euro-zone equities to fall or euro bond prices to rise

ipe expectations indicator november 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator November 2017

November 2017 (Magazine)By

Just when some major themes seemed to be on pause, managers’ expectations crept into rarified territory, while in others themes in place since at least 2014 have gathered momentum. Whether valuation extremes are appropriate, managers believe they will continue.

ipe manager expectations oct 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator October 2017

October 2017 (Magazine)

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, there was no corresponding rise in negative sentiment in the most recent survey period. That does not mean there were no changes in sentiment trends; only that shifts were mostly slight

ipe expectations indicator september 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator September 2017

September 2017 (Magazine)By

Investment managers’ expectations have been welcomingly accurate throughout the year. For example, positive sentiment toward European equities began to rise sharply near the end of 2016, followed by a roughly 20% rise in 2017. Additionally, expectations for dollar strength have been falling since January, and the dollar index (DXY) was down nearly 10% year-to-date through the recent survey period. What are managers’ views as we enter the second half of 2017?

ipe expectations indicator july august 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator July/August 2017

July / August 2017 (Magazine)

It would be an understatement to say the shine has left the US equity market, given this month’s manager expectation submissions. The month’s responses indicate movements across all asset categories, with a positive nod toward Europe, while those who predict change (for instance in the US and the UK) are seeing an erosion of confidence towards equity valuations.

expectations june 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator June 2017

June 2017 (Magazine)By

When fewer than one in 10 respondents expects something to happen, it is hard to accept it could happen. There is an increased number of such instances in the most recent IPE Asset Manager Expectations poll.

equities may 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator May 2017

May 2017 (Magazine)By

A key metric for interpreting manager expectations is the difference between those expecting a rise and those expecting a fall. Having data to analyse, trends, trend shifts and historical highs and lows helps make things clearer. While there are many themes worth noting, there is only one universally negative point, which is historically low and in a strong downtrend.

ipe expectations indicator april 2017 currencies 2

IPE Expectations Indicator April 2017

April 2017 (Magazine)By

The latest manager poll has two main themes: markets are weak and levels of sentiment are extreme.

ipe expectations indicator march 2017 currency 2

IPE Expectations Indicator March 2017

March 2017 (Magazine)

When a shift in sentiment begins, the euphoria does not dull universally; rather, the centre remains lustrous, while the edges are the first to fade

currencies feb 2017 pt2

IPE Expectations Indicator February 2017

February 2017 (Magazine)

With two full months of post-US election information to sift though, shifts in manager expectations have been as extreme as some reactions to, and rhetoric from, our newest world leader. Even more so than the prior month, the conviction that there will be movements in certain asset classes is surprisingly high. 

japan equities jan 2017

IPE Expectations Indicator January 2017

January 2017 (Magazine)

What a difference a month makes. With the previous indicator poll taken days before the US election, this month’s results illustrate how managers have digested markets’ reactions to the outcome

currencies 2 dec 2016

IPE Expectations Indicator December 2016

December 2016 (Magazine)

With the US election over, the opportunity of interpreting expectations of managers just prior to it is interesting. There were some interesting changes in the most recent period, but by far the most intriguing was the shifting of expectations to stability in equity markets without significant changes elsewhere.

currency nov 2016

IPE Expectations Indicator November 2016

November 2016 (Magazine)

Summer is over. Gone for the next nine months are the warm nights, and worry-free days…correction, only the warm nights have gone. The worry-free days did not exist this summer, and they still do not. 

bonds oct 2016

IPE Expectations Indicator October 2016

October 2016 (Magazine)By

The current survey period captured the end of the summer. The number of managers voicing concern about interest rate policy is high. However, the current environment has yet to reflect the alarms of many major investors and the survey results indicate most managers expect little dramatic near-term movement. Whether it is not yet the season for action, or investors expect the status quo to continue, is yet unclear.

japan equities dec 2016

IPE Expectations Indicator September 2016

September 2016 (Online)By

As time passes since the UK’s decision to leave the EU, some of the trends of the months prior have returned. This includes: outperforming US equity markets and dwindling faith in US dollar strength against the euro and yen (albeit with some volatility) and in sterling, which continues to drift lower after its post-Brexit decline. Whether managers’ expectations have recovered as quickly as these trends is the subject of this month’s review.

dollar euro aug 2016

IPE Expectations Indicator August 2016

August 2016 (Online)By

The expectation survey for August was completed in a post-Brexit market environment in which uncertainty was high, but cooler heads ultimately prevailed. Initial reactions caused a rebound in USD strength and an equity market sell-off, which was ultimately short-lived. Nevertheless, disrupted markets will influence expectations and results from the survey reflect managers’ concerns towards riskier assets.

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