IPE Expectations Indicator: December 2018
At times we aim to find the mountains within the molehills of manager expectation shifts. In our defence, any curvature is worthy of recognition. Sometimes, changes (or lack thereof) come along that are worth diving into. In the prior survey, it was the four-month lack of change within the high sentiment toward US equity markets to rise that was significant. During the current period, hyperbole aside, change has come.
IPE Expectations Indicator: July/August 2018
As often in high summer, storms – in the form of volatility – may be on the horizon
IPE Expectations Indicator: June 2018
This month’s IPE Expectations Indicator poll sees no change in some areas, some change in others, and a continuation of a long-term trend, which is, in itself, both a change and not a change.
IPE Expectations Indicator: May 2018
It would be an understatement to say the shine has left the US equity market, given this month’s manager expectation submissions. The month’s responses indicate movements across all asset categories, with a positive nod toward Europe, while those who predict change (for instance in the US and the UK) are seeing an erosion of confidence towards equity valuations.
IPE Expectations Indicator: April 2018
The influx of pessimism in the prior survey has not carried over into this month
IPE Expectations Indicator: March 2018
What does one expect to happen when positive sentiment declines across the board? What we know is that near universal sentiment movements do not happen often
IPE Expectations Indicator: February 2018
Given the similarities between the February 2018 and February 2017 expectations surveys, it may be appropriate to wish everyone a ‘happy same year’
IPE Expectations Indicator: January 2018
It would be an understatement to say the shine has left the US equity market, given this month’s manager expectation submissions
IPE Expectations Indicator: December 2017
This survey has rarely found such consensus among asset managers as we see in this month’s survey. Virtually no manager expects euro-zone equities to fall or euro bond prices to rise
IPE Expectations Indicator November 2017
Just when some major themes seemed to be on pause, managers’ expectations crept into rarified territory, while in others themes in place since at least 2014 have gathered momentum. Whether valuation extremes are appropriate, managers believe they will continue.
IPE Expectations Indicator October 2017
Despite rising geopolitical tensions, there was no corresponding rise in negative sentiment in the most recent survey period. That does not mean there were no changes in sentiment trends; only that shifts were mostly slight
IPE Expectations Indicator September 2017
Investment managers’ expectations have been welcomingly accurate throughout the year. For example, positive sentiment toward European equities began to rise sharply near the end of 2016, followed by a roughly 20% rise in 2017. Additionally, expectations for dollar strength have been falling since January, and the dollar index (DXY) was down nearly 10% year-to-date through the recent survey period. What are managers’ views as we enter the second half of 2017?
IPE Expectations Indicator July/August 2017
It would be an understatement to say the shine has left the US equity market, given this month’s manager expectation submissions. The month’s responses indicate movements across all asset categories, with a positive nod toward Europe, while those who predict change (for instance in the US and the UK) are seeing an erosion of confidence towards equity valuations.
IPE Expectations Indicator June 2017
When fewer than one in 10 respondents expects something to happen, it is hard to accept it could happen. There is an increased number of such instances in the most recent IPE Asset Manager Expectations poll.
IPE Expectations Indicator May 2017
A key metric for interpreting manager expectations is the difference between those expecting a rise and those expecting a fall. Having data to analyse, trends, trend shifts and historical highs and lows helps make things clearer. While there are many themes worth noting, there is only one universally negative point, which is historically low and in a strong downtrend.
IPE Expectations Indicator April 2017
The latest manager poll has two main themes: markets are weak and levels of sentiment are extreme.
IPE Expectations Indicator March 2017
When a shift in sentiment begins, the euphoria does not dull universally; rather, the centre remains lustrous, while the edges are the first to fade
IPE Expectations Indicator February 2017
With two full months of post-US election information to sift though, shifts in manager expectations have been as extreme as some reactions to, and rhetoric from, our newest world leader. Even more so than the prior month, the conviction that there will be movements in certain asset classes is surprisingly high.
IPE Expectations Indicator January 2017
What a difference a month makes. With the previous indicator poll taken days before the US election, this month’s results illustrate how managers have digested markets’ reactions to the outcome
IPE Expectations Indicator December 2016
With the US election over, the opportunity of interpreting expectations of managers just prior to it is interesting. There were some interesting changes in the most recent period, but by far the most intriguing was the shifting of expectations to stability in equity markets without significant changes elsewhere.