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CEO Bill Galvin says that says that 'on its best estimate – based on its approach to risk and the associated investment strategy – there would indeed be a surplus. But he adds, “by definition, this only has a 50/50 chance of our funding assumptions being right (or better).'

In fact what he does not say here is that the USS estimate the surplus would be £8.3 billion!

So the question is: if there is a 50:50 chance of a surplus exceeding £8.3 billion, what is the probability of it being less than zero - that is, a deficit?

Why are we not being told? The USS must know the answer.

Only when we know that can we talk about applying a suitable degree of prudence in the valuation.

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