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The slowdown in growth of longevity took demographers by surprise. That means they can't predict the future. That's no surprise. The future is far too complicated to be foretold. Ask any meteorologist, or economist for that matter.

So why does Mr. Vaupel think he's the only exception? Does he really know about medical progress? Did he predict AIDS or heart transplants? Does he know when we'll find a cure for cancer or even whether we can cure Alzheimer? Can he predict the next animal disease that finds a way to kill humans? Has he ever thought about the influence of climate change on longevity?

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