Comparison of the global 2°C carbon budget with fuel reserves CO2 emissions potential
The Cancun Agreement in December 2010 captured an international commitment to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It also noted the potential need to tighten this target to 1.5°C. The Potsdam Climate Institute has calculated a global carbon budget for the world to stay below 2°C of warming. This revealed that to reduce the chance of exceeding 2°C warming to 20%, the global carbon budget for 2000-50 is 886GtCO2. By 2011, the global economy has already used up over a third of that 50-year budget. Calculations of global emissions published in Nature indicate 282GtCO2 have already been emitted in the first decade of this century from burning fossil fuels, with land use change contributing a further 39GtCO2. This leaves a budget of around 565GtCO2 for the remaining 40 years to 2050. This budget could be further contracted if a position is adopted to limit global warming to 1.5°C or even lower. The Potsdam Climate Institute also calculated the total potential emissions from burning the world’s proven fossil fuel reserves, which came to 2,795GtCO2 – nearly five times the carbon budget for the next 40 years. Consequently only one-fifth of the reserves could be burnt unabated by 2050 if we are to reduce the likelihood of exceeding 2°C warming to 20%. Source: Carbon Tracker Initiative, ‘Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?’ (2011)
