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Ian Macoun was all set to continue an illustrious career in traditional fund management when he decided to change tack.
It has been become apparent in recent years that behavioural finance has important things to say about how investors make decisions.
Neutral positioning of analysts over the summer masks an overall pessimistic mood
Trump’s attempts to undermine international trade and the US Federal Reserve are turning analysts against US assets, while good news out of Europe reinforce the case for appreciation of European assets
Economists expect a benign macroeconomic environment, but all is predicated on the fickleness of US policy
Tariff-led recession fears have eased, supporting risk assets, but bond and currency markets are in ‘wait-and-see’ mode
Though much of the damage caused by the so-called 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of US tariffs has been repaired, uncertainties generally remain high.
As ever, the US dominates the global economic landscape. While there is still considerable uncertainty around possible tariffs emanating from the US – despite deals struck by the UK, China and Vietnam – the levels are still expected to be markedly lower than those trumpeted on 2 April.
Ian Macoun was all set to continue an illustrious career in traditional fund management when he decided to change tack.
High-yield bonds have proven their resiliency in the current market volatility. Spreads are at the tight end, but yields are also higher than they have been, offsetting these concerns.
US President Donald Trump remains the main source of global political risk. In recent weeks, he has ramped up pressure on Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine while the success of his interventions in Israel’s dual conflicts with Hamas and Iran is uncertain.
The likelihood of a full-scale global trade war has decreased, and the outlook for the global economy has improved as a result, but new tariff announcements by the US administration could cause this scenario to change once more