Caroline Hay

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  • The yen hits lows not seen against the dollar since the 1990s

    US economy continues to surprise

    May 2024 (Magazine)

    The resilience of the US economy continues to confound observers. The Federal Reserve’s 11 hikes in interest rates over the course of 2022 and 2023 were implemented to rein in economic strength and to stifle inflation. Scroll forward to the second quarter of 2024 and both inflation and economic activity are still higher than expected.  

  • Argentine peso vs US dollar

    Will delayed economic bad news hit the market this year?

    January 2024 (Magazine)

    Global economic growth was below potential in 2023, but still markedly stronger than the forecasts had been indicating at the start of the year, with the US leading the way and even the likes of Europe and the UK, though hardly stellar performers, posting better than expected economic activity. 

  • Chile’s central bank has started to cut rates

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Uncertainty persists

    September 2023 (Magazine)

    As the major central banks in developed markets reach, or at least near, the end of their hiking cycles, markets, rather than identifying when policy rates will peak, focus is now on the conundrum of just how long these policy peaks will be maintained.

  • UK- ratio of export prices to import prices

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Chill winds prompt caution

    May 2023 (Magazine)

    Although 2022 was a remarkably bad year for bonds and equities, any hopes that 2023 might illuminate a brighter path have already been dispelled as rapidly changing narratives – from recession to boom to fears of a banking crisis – all tossed and turned stock and rates markets. The result was a remarkably turbulent first quarter. 

  • Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

    Fixed income, rates & currency: defying historical norms

    September 2022 (Magazine)

    Another US jobs report comes in ­significantly above consensus. Its across-the-board strength, upward revisions to previous reports, and an unemployment rate at the lowest level since 1963, may indicate that the economy is not quite as near recession as previously surmised. And with inflation still rising, albeit slightly less fast than expected, the outlook remains cloudy.

  • Hendrik Tuch

    Euro peripheral spreads

    September 2022 (Magazine)

    Just over a decade ago, Mario Draghi, then President of the ECB, gave a speech in which he uttered the famous words: “.…the European Central Bank [ECB] is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro”, a phrase often credited with hauling Europe out of the depths of its sovereign debt crisis.

  • Isabelle Vic-Philippe

    Briefing: Germany finally issues green bonds

    October (2020) Magazine

    There was little doubt that the German finance ministry would eventually tap the green bond market. Germany is committed to reaching net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050.

  • London skyline

    2019 Outlook: Preparing for the downside, part 2


    IPE analyses fixed income outlooks from JP Morgan Asset Management, Janus Henderson, Fidelity, and Pictet

  • private assets outlook

    2019 Outlook: Preparing for the downside, part 1


    IPE analyses investment outlooks from investment firms including DWS, BlackRock, SSGA, and Invesco.

  • Special Report

    Private Debt: Careful selection is key

    November 2018 (magazine)

    Present market conditions have generated many opportunities in private debt but the challenge is finding the right deals