All articles by Caroline Hay
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AnalysisChart watch: positive US GDP forecasts overshadowed by tariff unpredictability
Economists expect a benign macroeconomic environment, but all is predicated on the fickleness of US policy
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AnalysisFixed income, rates, currencies: uncertainty sends US stocks out of sync with bonds and currencies
Tariff-led recession fears have eased, supporting risk assets, but bond and currency markets are in ‘wait-and-see’ mode
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Questions over US economic policy dominate global concerns
As ever, the US dominates the global economic landscape. While there is still considerable uncertainty around possible tariffs emanating from the US – despite deals struck by the UK, China and Vietnam – the levels are still expected to be markedly lower than those trumpeted on 2 April.
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FeaturesChart watch: Uncertainty following tariff announcements persists
Though much of the damage caused by the so-called 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of US tariffs has been repaired, uncertainties generally remain high.
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AnalysisFixed income, rates, currencies: Questions over US economic policy dominate global investor concerns
The likelihood of a full-scale global trade war has decreased, and the outlook for the global economy has improved as a result, but new tariff announcements by the US administration could cause this scenario to change once more
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Features
Fixed income, rates, currencies: Fickle US policy shakes global investor confidence
The hugely unpredictable policy announcements from those in charge of the world’s largest developed economy are market events more usually associated with goings-on in a newer EM economy
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FeaturesChart watch: Uncertainty ripples across markets
The trade war unleashed by Trump’s tariffs and the knock-on effects for business confidence and commodities demand are reflected in our latest chart overview
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Markets rocked by Trump’s sweeping tariffs plan
The world’s economy enters a new phase as the US administration escalates towards a global trade war, raising the prospect of a US recession and crashing global financial markets
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Trump’s tariff announcements weigh on sentiment
As tariff announcements garner huge amounts of media attention, financial market reactions have been muted. Participants are trying to beat off tariff fatigue and assess the best path through all the smoke and mirrors.
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Asset Class ReportsTrade and economy weigh on European credit
Despite trade worries and a challenging economic outlook, appetite for European credit remains robust, bolstered by refinancing activity and a supportive ECB stance
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Asset Class ReportsEurope investment outlook: Search for opportunities amid the gloom
We asked fixed-income managers for their views on Europe’s outlook as Germany and France grapple with structural challenges and political uncertainty.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Uncertainty reigns as Trump 2.0 takes office
Now that Donald Trump has been installed as US president, there should be more clarity around some of the timings of his probable new policies.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Trump 2.0 sends global markets out of sync
Trump’s re-election prompted a rally in US assets, but elsewhere in global markets investors did not react positively
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: All eyes on Trump’s return
With the Republican Party now in control of both Senate and House, the leeway that President-elect Donald Trump will have to enact his pre-election policies could be considerable.
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FeaturesSoft landing likely again for US economy
It has been more than a year since the attacks by Hamas in Israel and tensions in the Middle East remain high, with a rising impact on financial market sentiment.
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FeaturesUS high yield bonds punch out of a corner
US high yield has come a long way from its murky beginnings with the very high yielding bonds of so called ‘fallen angels’, and Drexel Burnham Lambert’s Michael Milken offering bonds newly issued by corporates with sub-investment grade ratings for the first time in the 1980s, properly introducing the world to high yield bond investing.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: All eyes are on US elections
With so many important elections taking place this year, politics were likely to have an outsized influence on financial markets.
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FeaturesFears grow of US slowdown
US president Joe Biden’s decision to step aside was much murmured about following his disastrous performance in a debate with Donald Trump, but it was still a surprise when he announced his decision. However, market reactions were relatively muted, despite shaking pollsters’ predictions on who might now win the election.
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Special ReportIndia makes its debut in key government bond index
Their inclusion in the JP Morgan index makes government bonds more accessible to foreign investors
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FeaturesUS economy continues to surprise
The resilience of the US economy continues to confound observers. The Federal Reserve’s 11 hikes in interest rates over the course of 2022 and 2023 were implemented to rein in economic strength and to stifle inflation. Scroll forward to the second quarter of 2024 and both inflation and economic activity are still higher than expected.
