All Ahead of the Curve articles
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Features
Can central banks retain their independence?
Over the last few decades, following central bank behaviour has been a rewarding investment strategy. That is why there is now a community of people employed to analyse every word central bank officials utter.
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Change is required as populations age
During a recent weekend in the artsy California mountain town of Idyllwild, my wife and I enjoyed a performance of a local band. Seated near us was a gentleman wearing a T-shirt proclaiming, We the People ARE PISSED OFF. The message on this shirt caught my attention.
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The next Magnificent Sevens are hiding in plain sight
Like the so-called FANGs that preceded them, one could argue that the Magnificent Seven group of US tech mega-caps that accounted for a large portion of market performance in 2023 are now a part of Wall Street’s history books. Besides two names that have continued to pull away from the pack, the group is no longer commanding investors’ undivided attention.
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Why investors should focus on Scope 3 emissions
The investment industry is preoccupied with reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions in portfolios to meet net-zero commitments. However, this focus will not provide a way to effectively manage climate transition and physical risk.
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Modelling shows net-zero investing can be profitable
Since the acceptance of the Paris Agreement in 2015, which bound nations to a legal commitment to reduce global temperatures, there has been a clear shift towards net-zero investing. While socially responsible investments are crucial for the mitigation of climate change, recent calls to row back on ESG funds suggest some hesitation.
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Measuring the impact of non financial factors on GDP growth
In their paper entitled Modeling the Links Between Economic Growth, Socio-economic Dynamics and Environmental Dimensions: a Panel VAR Approach, the authors attempt to quantify direct and indirect causalities between economic growth and extra-financial dimensions, including demographics, biodiversity, climate change, political stability, inequalities and economic growth.
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AI’s future in investment management is evolutionary
The explosion of ChatGPT-style large language models (LLMs) has ignited a heated debate over the future of artificial intelligence (AI) in investment management and its role in institutional investor portfolios. However, amid the noise, a groundbreaking application of AI has quietly arisen, which has the potential to revolutionise the industry.
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Refining how factors impact investment returns
Investment management has undergone a significant transformation with the introduction of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing. It emphasises a more holistic approach that goes beyond financial returns to assess long-term sustainability.
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NLP can help identify linkages between equity market peers
Natural language processing in AI provides a way to gain insights from unstructured data at scale, allowing access to information across a broad set of investment opportunities
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The great desyncronisation age in global financial markets
Investors are witnesses to the end of an era of synchronised global growth, when China could be counted on for outsized expansion that provided a broad cross-border lift for economies, industries and asset classes.
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Pricing the decline of democracy for investors
History does not progress in a linear way. Science, democracy, technology, arts, the economy and any other type of evolutive process advance and recede in chaotic movements, even though they ineluctably move towards progress. Those recessions and pull-backs often go unnoticed at first, at least to the casual observer. And yet, they end up profoundly sanctioned by all stakeholders including the economy, financial markets and investors.
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Features
Inversion anxiety: what’s up with yield curves in 2023
For over half a century, each time the spread between US 10-year and three-month yields turned negative, indicating an inverted yield curve, a recession followed, sooner or later. In 2023, the yield curve has been more than just a little inverted.
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Features
The US dollar’s declining status as a global reserve currency
The recent US debt ceiling negotiations have brought into question the viability of the US dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. Long-term investors have been reviewing their strategic asset allocation away from the currency, seeking to diversify their exposure and to take advantage of long-term investment opportunities.
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Ahead of the curve: Is growth back or is it a trap?
It is likely you have heard about ‘value traps’. They are low-multiple companies that are priced at an ever expanding discount to the market and structurally underperform as fundamentals weaken due to new competition and, in extreme scenarios, may even face obsolescence.
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Ahead of the curve: The rise of multi-manager models for alternative investing
Fifteen years after the ‘global financial crisis’, multi-manager strategies for alternative investing have not only shaken off their tarnished reputation but have evolved
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Ahead of the curve: What happened to equity volatility in 2022 and what next?
Something strange happened last year. Expectations about the future level of volatility in US equities – implied volatility – behaved in a very unusual way. In a falling market, the price of implied volatility normally rises because equity falls are associated with a worsening macroeconomic outlook, implying more market risk. Expectations of future volatility therefore increase.
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Ahead of the curve: Introducing the concept of a carbon risk-free curve
As global investors and companies progress towards their net-zero emissions targets, the concept of a carbon risk-free curve becomes increasingly relevant within the fixed-income market. In our view, this curve should provide a reference for evaluating the risk levels of bonds in relation to their issuers’ CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e) emissions and can therefore help investors to assess the impact of changes in CO₂e emissions on the yield spread of fixed-income bonds.
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Features
Ahead of the curve: The missing elements in the digital currencies debate
The recent contraction of the cryptocurrency markets poses questions about the viability of digital currency as an asset class for institutional investors. However, these developments have not undermined the efforts of central banks to pursue their own digital currency initiatives.
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Ahead of the curve: Time to automate collateral management
The resilience of financial markets has been tested several times in recent years, from the so-called ‘dash for cash’ at the start of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020 to the spike in UK Gilt yields in September 2022.
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Ahead of the curve: Is small cap the next mean reversion trade?
By now, most investors have noticed a rebound in value relative to growth in equity markets. After underperforming growth over the past decade, value stocks are experiencing strong mean reversion and outperforming significantly.