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Interesting views. Indeed, ability to read through emerging macro-economic factors is crucial. The future comes with new variables which models based on past data can not predict. However, short term volatility measurement continues to have its special role. At the start of the 2008 crisis, those corporations who stuck to long term view of their asset portfolios ended up underestimating the rapid downward spiral in asset valuation caused by volatility. This eventually destroyed holding corporations itself. To me volatility is an earthquake. One must construct portfolios with flexibility to ride through it. Long term projected high returns is realised only by those who survive. It is interlinked!