GPS: Blow to funds’ optimism
European pension funds say they have become more concerned about their own organisation's ability to meet its financial objectives during the third quarter of 2010, with pessimistic views outnumbering optimistic views.
Pension fund managers were also more negative about the economy's prospects in their own countries than in the second quarter; the increase in pessimism about the funds' financial prospects has been even more pronounced than the increase in pessimism about their own funds. These were the findings of the most recent survey of pension funds in Europe, the Global Pension Survey (GPS) www.globalpensionsurvey.com.
Every quarter, the survey questions pension fund managers about the developments they expect to see in the pensions sector and on financial markets. This quarter, the GPS included European pension fund managers and in the quarters to come it will be extended into a worldwide survey. The survey gives us not only an indication of the mood among pension fund managers but also of the economy in general.
The optimism index measures the difference between the percentage of those who are optimistic and those who are pessimistic, and indicates the change in optimism among pension funds. A positive (negative) percentage indicates more (less) optimistic than negative responses.
Nursing cover ratio back to health is priority
There is widespread concern among the managers questioned in the survey about the continuing turmoil in the financial markets, and how its affects their pension funds. In total, 60% of the surveyed pension funds identify interest rate movements as the most im portant external challenge, with investors pushing bond yields down to the lowest levels in the past two years, lowering cover ratio's again after a rebound in 2009. Other major external challenges are stability of the financial system (56%, compared to 44% in the second quarter) and continued volatility of the financial markets. Inflation as a major theme has moved to the background, identified by 18% as a major concern compared to 36% in the last quarter.
These external concerns spill over to the pension funds' own organisation and focus the internal agenda. Maintaining financial health has become the key concern - more than 70% of the funds are concerned about their fund's cover ratio, compared to 62% last quarter. Pension funds say they assess other internal concerns (effective risk management and ability to focus on long term investing) on a similar level as last quarter. In these uncertain markets, the GPS results also seem to suggest that pension funds shun clear choices in portfolio construction, rather placing their faith in a wide range of strategic options without a clear winner. Compared to previous quarters, major investment themes like investing in emerging markets, combining active as well as passive management, and expanding alternative investments are all choices that funds consider for the coming three years.
Pension funds stand firm on euro
Pension funds say they are not reassured that recovery of economic growth and financial stability in the euro-zone is in sight, but refrain from a negative stance on the euro's prospects. A comfortable majority of the respondents (60%) agree with the statement that the emergency lending measures announced by the European leaders and central banks will positively affect the European economy. Asked whether the financial stability in Europe is severely threatened by Greece, Spain or Italy, 71% of the surveyed pension fund managers and trustees agree. A total of 69% acknowledge that if the financial situation in the Mediterranean countries will worsen in the coming months, it will have a further negative impact on their pension funds' performance.
The euro still enjoys has a strong supporter base. Despite the financial turmoil, respondents tend to focus on the positive effects of the euro on the European economy. Another 69% agrees that the euro has brought more prosperity economically, yet only 44% of the funds agree that the introduction of the euro overall had a positive effect on their pension funds' performance. Stability seems to be the way forward. Reassuringly for Greece, only 22% agrees that it should be excluded from the euro.
The Global Pensions Survey is a partnership between Tilburg University, Investment & Pensions Europe and the European Pension Academy. For more information or to participate please visit www.globalpensionsurvey.com