IPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2023
Continued loud bickering between the Wagner Group and the Russian army is protecting Putin from both, worsening the outlook for peace, while there are multiple signs that military supplies are approaching exhaustion. The coalition supporting Ukraine is stronger than ever, showing increasing willingness to provide military aircraft. Yet the offensive expected in February has not started. In the US, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is damaging his position with an unproductive row with Disney, while Trump has moved closer to a prison term. Gas consumption in the EU is falling faster than expected, due to efficiencies like heat pumps, changeover to electricity and solar panels. Macron scored nicely by sponsoring the participation of Zelensky at the Hiroshima G7; Sunak failed to centre political attention on China.
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