The war in Ukraine is characterised by a build-up for the battle for Kherson. The result of that campaign is likely to have great political influence on both sides. Neither is capable of a surprise win, but time works against Russia. In the US, Trump’s legal troubles are serious and mounting, but any Republican successor may be even more destructive. The EU is running against time to prepare for winter. Both optimists and pessimists are over-estimating the ability of technicians to predict the future. Russia has lost the EU as a primary customer for its oil and gas. It must make up for higher distribution costs by offering significant discounts.
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