The financial outlook for the Swiss social security fund AHV is due to improve on the back of a robust labour market and positive demographic developments, although the fund is still due to post a deficit from next year.
AHV is the largest of the social security funds managed by Compenswiss, with assets amounting to CHF38bn (€40bn).
According to the latest outlook published by the Swiss Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO), the AHV fund record is set to record a deficit of CHF4.2bn in 2035, and CHF3.4bn in 2040.
The outlook starts to deteriorate in 2026, when the 13th month of pension – 13. AHV-Rente – is paid for the first time. The Swiss public voted in favour of the 13. AHV Rente in a referendum that took place last year.
Last year figures published by the FSIO pointed to a CHF6.1bn deficit of the AHV in 2035, and CHF5.9bn in 2040.
The FSIO updated the outlook, including for the disability insurance fund (IV fund), following a review of demographic scenarios, new economic forecasts, and the social security funds’ financial statements for 2024.
The latest demographic projections assume higher employment figures than those published in 2020 and fewer over 65s as life expectancy increases slow, according to FSIO.
Its new scenario leads to a higher amount of contributions paid to the AHV, rising revenues, and a slowdown in terms of expenditures, it added.
On the other hand, new economic forecasts have revised downward the short-term growth for the Swiss economy, and wage developments.
This will lead to a weaker growth in terms of revenues in the short-term for the AHV and to a weaker development of the average wage and price index, and thus also of basic pensions, the FSIO noted.
The IV fund will record a deficit of around CHF300m up to 2040. The IV’s financial situation is thus increasingly deteriorating, the FSIO said.
No comments yet