White papersLNG Shock – but in a war, someone is always making money
In this note, Jim Wright, Fund Manager of the Premier Miton Global Infrastructure Income Fund, examines the reported damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal - a facility responsible for around 20% of global imported LNG - and the shockwaves it has sent through energy markets. He also highlights how rapidly expanding LNG capacity in the US and Canada positions North America to play an increasingly important role in supporting global supply in the years ahead.
White papersContingent capital; a strong case in today’s fixed income market
In this edition of Talking Markets Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income at Premier Miton, discusses how stronger bank capital positions and post‑crisis regulation continue to reshape the contingent capital landscape. He shares why CoCos are increasingly compelling for income‑focused investors, offering a robustness that has held up well through recent market stresses.
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NewsSweden’s FTN rebuts legal challenge over €18bn fund procurement
FTN dismisses all Indecap Fonder’s claims in its application to overturn results of agency’s largest procurement
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AnalysisBP ballot row: a test for UK shareholder democracy?
Will the oil & energy giant get away with blocking a climate shareholder resolution?
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NewsMandatory pensions seen as key to boosting SME coverage, German study finds
German SMEs favour mandatory pensions as low-earner coverage weakens and voluntary schemes lose traction
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NewsPortuguese pension funds return 5.1% for 2025
2025 was a strong year for European equities, which had lagged US equities in most recent years, says WTW
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NewsPeople moves: HSBC AM names CEO for alternatives
Thorsten Michalik succeeds Joanna Munro, who is retiring after more than 40 years in asset management, of which 20 have been with HSBC
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NewsDenmark’s AkademikerPension divests US company for nuclear weapons links
Pension fund blacklists three Chinese firms and one US firm for links to aiding nuclear weapons outside the EU
White papersThe Scarcity Trade: Why Critical Metals Are the Real AI Play
Commodities are entering a new structural phase defined by scarcity, geopolitics and surging demand for the metals underpinning AI, electrification and defence. Yet financial markets remain largely unprepared for the physical supply constraints required to build it — creating a compelling opportunity: critical metals offer both return potential and a natural hedge to AI risk.
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NewsDAX firms push fully funded pensions despite regulatory complexity
German corporates increasingly fund pension liabilities fully, strengthening governance, reducing risk, and supporting profitability amid regulation
White papersOut of the Black Box: Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs via Conditional Probabilities
Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on preceding context. We leverage these conditional probabilities to construct an entropy-based measure of prediction uncertainty, which we term inner confidence. Predictions with higher inner confidence are systematically more accurate.
White papersModeling and Forecasting of Large Unbalanced Option Implied Volatility Surfaces
Forecasting the option implied volatility (IV) surface is difficult with standard time-series models because of its time-varying granularity. We propose a new two-step real-time sequential forecasting framework. The first step fits the daily surface and can accommodate any underlying specification for option prices or IVs, including dynamic option-pricing models, nonparametric methods, and machine-learning techniques. In the second step, we sequentially estimate a dynamic IV model using an updating rule.
White papersPure momentum
Momentum trading strategies exploit return persistence, but conventional past-year cumulative-return measures generate a noisy signal that attenuates performance. We propose a pure momentum strategy that identifies trends directly from daily returns. Our method reduces volatility, tail risk, and transaction costs while enhancing profitability. Performance is primarily driven by long positions in winners, supporting theories postulating overconfidence. The bad news, instead, appears to be incorporated more slowly. In particular, we show that omitting the most recent month is unnecessary to identify winners.
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NewsUK authority embraces supervision as ESG frameworks mature
Financial Conduct Authority signals end of rule-heavy ESG phase, prioritising supervision and embedding existing sustainability frameworks
PodcastIran: A temporary shock or a persistent shift? - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions
The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi’s investment views.
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NewsPension funds drive recovery in German Spezialfonds after lean years
German pension funds led a sharp rebound in Spezialfonds inflows, as institutional demand recovered strongly in 2025
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NewsEssentra pension plan completes £104m buy-in deal with Aviva
The transaction, which secures benefits of both deferred and pensioner members, is the second deal between Aviva and the plan’s trustees
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NewsUK Lords back DC scale exemption in Pension Schemes Bill
Peers approve DC scale exemption, challenging UK consolidation push and reinforcing focus on member outcomes
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NewsNorway’s SWF says UK should be stricter in green reporting proposal
NBIM responds to FCA’s proposed new sustainability disclosure rules for listed companies; calls for timelines for Scope 3 emissions reporting to become mandatory
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NewsChurch of England Pensions Board to vote against climate-backtracking banks
‘No’ votes already planned for AGMs of NatWest, Santander, and HSBC
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