In Depth – Page 7
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FeaturesIs the US economy finally heading for a soft landing?
Having come to terms with the higher-for-longer mantra, markets are grappling with ‘higher-for-even-longer’, as US economic resilience continues to challenge expectations of weakness while reducing the prospects for earlier interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – December 2023
*Data as of 31 October 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesThe great desyncronisation age in global financial markets
Investors are witnesses to the end of an era of synchronised global growth, when China could be counted on for outsized expansion that provided a broad cross-border lift for economies, industries and asset classes.
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FeaturesPrivate debt managers bullish despite uncertainty
When the global financial crisis wreaked havoc across the banking sector, private credit emerged as a potential winner.
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FeaturesAvoided emissions: measuring carbon that didn’t enter the atmosphere
A few years ago, a footwear producer’s claim that it was reducing carbon emissions in the economy because its customers walked rather than took the car provoked amusement among investment managers. It wanted to prove its product was healthier and greener than competing transport modes by claiming credit for emissions prevented from petrol use. This autumn, assessments of the role played by individual low-carbon products in replacing fossil fuels are again under scrutiny in the finance sector.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesMarket volatility: low risk does not mean ‘no risk’
Efforts to produce an accurate estimate of market risk can sometimes turn into a pessimist’s paradise, leading to a paradox. If the outcome of the estimation looks positive, investors might feel that they should not count on it, and if it looks negative, the real outcome will probably be worse than expected. From that perspective, the third quarter of this year was a very unusual one, quantitatively speaking. Not only did both risk and return decline simultaneously – a rare event – but investor sentiment also turned negative during the quarter, ending at its lowest level since the March banking crisis.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: interest rates the big question
In August, when Fitch Ratings downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, it cited an “erosion of governance” as one of the key reasons for its decision. September’s US government shutdown chaos will probably not have improved perceptions of US lawmakers’ proficiency to govern.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – November 2023
*Data as of 29 September 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesPricing the decline of democracy for investors
History does not progress in a linear way. Science, democracy, technology, arts, the economy and any other type of evolutive process advance and recede in chaotic movements, even though they ineluctably move towards progress. Those recessions and pull-backs often go unnoticed at first, at least to the casual observer. And yet, they end up profoundly sanctioned by all stakeholders including the economy, financial markets and investors.
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FeaturesRegulators set sight on private market fund valuations
The current waves of rising inflation and interest rates, economic uncertainty and market volatility may eventually be remembered as just a temporary setback for managers of unlisted assets. But the regulatory initiatives announced in recent months, following pressure from investors and the public, could bring about deeper changes to the buoyant private markets industry.
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InterviewsOpening private markets to smaller investors
“One of the biggest differentiators for us in comparison to other private markets businesses is our focus on the use of technology within the business,” says Hartley Rogers, chair of Hamilton Lane.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesImpact investment: How change theory can boost key messages
Simply aligning an investment with one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) does not always convince individuals about the impact of an investment. Communicating about change can help.
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FeaturesInversion anxiety: what’s up with yield curves in 2023
For over half a century, each time the spread between US 10-year and three-month yields turned negative, indicating an inverted yield curve, a recession followed, sooner or later. In 2023, the yield curve has been more than just a little inverted.
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InterviewsStan Moss, Polen Capital CEO: High conviction is the lifeblood of investing
The shift in macroeconomic conditions throughout 2022 must have been a relief for active managers from one perspective at least. For over a decade of low interest rates and low volatility they have had fewer chances to showcase their skills.
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FeaturesCredit investors ready for a possible US recession
Although 2023 has been ‘interesting’ so far, it has also provided relief after the challenges and financial asset mayhem of 2022, and a wide range of asset classes have posted positive returns to date.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch - October 2023
*Data as of 31 August 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
