Investment – Page 3
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FeaturesMarket volatility: low risk does not mean ‘no risk’
Efforts to produce an accurate estimate of market risk can sometimes turn into a pessimist’s paradise, leading to a paradox. If the outcome of the estimation looks positive, investors might feel that they should not count on it, and if it looks negative, the real outcome will probably be worse than expected. From that perspective, the third quarter of this year was a very unusual one, quantitatively speaking. Not only did both risk and return decline simultaneously – a rare event – but investor sentiment also turned negative during the quarter, ending at its lowest level since the March banking crisis.
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InterviewsOpening private markets to smaller investors
“One of the biggest differentiators for us in comparison to other private markets businesses is our focus on the use of technology within the business,” says Hartley Rogers, chair of Hamilton Lane.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: interest rates the big question
In August, when Fitch Ratings downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, it cited an “erosion of governance” as one of the key reasons for its decision. September’s US government shutdown chaos will probably not have improved perceptions of US lawmakers’ proficiency to govern.
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InterviewsPricing the decline of democracy for investors
History does not progress in a linear way. Science, democracy, technology, arts, the economy and any other type of evolutive process advance and recede in chaotic movements, even though they ineluctably move towards progress. Those recessions and pull-backs often go unnoticed at first, at least to the casual observer. And yet, they end up profoundly sanctioned by all stakeholders including the economy, financial markets and investors.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – November 2023
*Data as of 29 September 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesRegulators set sight on private market fund valuations
The current waves of rising inflation and interest rates, economic uncertainty and market volatility may eventually be remembered as just a temporary setback for managers of unlisted assets. But the regulatory initiatives announced in recent months, following pressure from investors and the public, could bring about deeper changes to the buoyant private markets industry.
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FeaturesImpact investment: How change theory can boost key messages
Simply aligning an investment with one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) does not always convince individuals about the impact of an investment. Communicating about change can help.
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InterviewsStan Moss, Polen Capital CEO: High conviction is the lifeblood of investing
The shift in macroeconomic conditions throughout 2022 must have been a relief for active managers from one perspective at least. For over a decade of low interest rates and low volatility they have had fewer chances to showcase their skills.
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InterviewsInversion anxiety: what’s up with yield curves in 2023
For over half a century, each time the spread between US 10-year and three-month yields turned negative, indicating an inverted yield curve, a recession followed, sooner or later. In 2023, the yield curve has been more than just a little inverted.
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FeaturesCredit investors ready for a possible US recession
Although 2023 has been ‘interesting’ so far, it has also provided relief after the challenges and financial asset mayhem of 2022, and a wide range of asset classes have posted positive returns to date.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch - October 2023
*Data as of 31 August 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2023
The Russian war in the Ukraine is still stalling, with the prelude of the US elections coming closer. Trump’s self-destructive utterings keep his followers unmoved but do nothing to convince independents.
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FeaturesBritain’s LDI crisis: When things nearly fell apart
On 23 September 2022, Kwasi Kwarteng, the then UK chancellor of the exchequer, announced a £45bn (€52bn) package of tax cuts. The hand-outs, designed to please key voters, were the wrong gift at the wrong time. For several years, the Bank of England had been attempting to end quantitative easing and start putting a higher price on borrowing.
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FeaturesHow the AT1 bond market shrugged off the Credit Suisse debacle
On a late Monday evening in August, the Italian right-wing government unexpectedly announced a new 40% tax on banks’ ‘windfall’ profits derived by the higher lending rates. Shares in Italian banks tumbled, banking executives cried foul, and analysts poured scorn over the measure. The government, which was hoping to raise up to €3bn to help families and small businesses, backtracked shortly after, scaling back the tax.
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InterviewsPaul Lorentz, Manulife Asset & Wealth Management: Canada to Europe, via Asia
Values are changing rapidly in the world of asset management. Leaders come and go, but perhaps less so than in the past, and loyalty to a company is increasingly appreciated by clients, as a sign of commitment and stability.
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FeaturesThe US dollar’s declining status as a global reserve currency
The recent US debt ceiling negotiations have brought into question the viability of the US dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. Long-term investors have been reviewing their strategic asset allocation away from the currency, seeking to diversify their exposure and to take advantage of long-term investment opportunities.
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FeaturesOpen-ended investment funds face up to the shadow banking dragnet
The debate over the systemic risk of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) – sometimes called shadow banks – is a recurrent theme but it has recently moved to the forefront thanks to tighter monetary policies, geopolitical risks and factors such as the UK’s LDI crisis. While regulators are assessing the threats posed, most market participants believe changes will not happen for years. For some, there are fears that largely unleveraged segments like open-ended investment funds could be unfairly targeted
