While it is still far from clear which elements of US president-elect Donald Trump’s election campaign pronouncements he intends to carry through into political strategy when he takes office, the markets must now learn to live with fact he will be the next president, says the head of investment at Finland’s third-largest pension fund.
Mikko Mursula, CIO at the €36.5bn pensions insurer Ilmarinen, said in his blog: “The market will have to learn to live with Trump, as it will with Brexit.
“In both cases, the people voted for change, and what these changes mean in the end will only be clear over a longer period of time – perhaps years from now.”
Protectionist rhetoric uttered during the election campaign would clearly be bad for world trade and export-orientated economies including Finland and especially for emerging markets, but if the US economy picks up and deregulation takes place, this would boost the stock market, he said.
“But how much in the end was just campaign rhetoric and which decisions Trump and his administration actually execute remains to be seen,” he wrote, adding that ‘unpredictable’ seemed to be the most common word used to describe the future president.
“Pension investors are primarily interested in the long-term financial impact,” Mursula wrote.
“After most of the initial confusion, it is time to sit down and carefully analyse what the medium and long-term effects of the new US administration will be for the global economy.”
He said investors were now waiting for the new president to outline his economic and trade policy direction.
“Concrete measures can be expected only after the inauguration, but, what is said in the next few weeks will show what remains of the campaign rhetoric, and clues will also come in the form of the type of team Trump starts to gather around him,” Mursula wrote.