All articles by Peter Kraneveld – Page 3
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2021
Vaccination figures are rising steadily, but are still at a relatively low level. The US and UK, both important vaccine producers, lead the field with the EU and Japan lagging. As the speed of vaccination has increased, supplies have become a problem, except in the UK. This has caused bad feelings in the EU to the point where a trade war was threatened. New vaccines are in the regulatory pipeline but market shares have largely already been divided in the developed countries. The discovery of new COVID-19 mutations and their resistance to vaccines are an additional risk.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2021
Interest has shifted from contamination and mortality data to vaccination figures. In this field, the US and UK are doing well, while the EU and Japan are lagging. Political risk is perceived to have gone. Donald Trump’s tendency to self-destruct is creating opportunities for the Republican Party to heal while Democrats are preparing an economic support package.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2021
US COVID-19 figures were rising rapidly at the time of writing. Western European figures were divided. Many showed a climbdown from the second wave but Germany, the UK and the Netherlands were faced with growing figures. Japan’s statistics were up, forming a third wave. In a few weeks, we will know how the deployed vaccines work in practice.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2020
US COVID-19 case numbers were rising rapidly at the time of writing. Western European figures suggest that the lockdowns are repelling the second wave. Japan’s statistics suggest a third wave is coming. Only an efficient vaccination and a high participation in inoculation programmes can end the threat posed by COVID-19.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2020
The two overriding concerns for global markets are the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in many parts of the world and the US elections. In relation to the pandemic it is impossible to know exactly when it will be brought under control. In the US there is a real chance that Joe Biden will win the presidency and the Democrats gain a majority in the senate.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator October 2020
Globally, net equity sentiment is close to record levels, while net bond sentiment is flat or down to near record levels. A scenario explained by a virtual consensus that central banks can continue to pump liquidity into the system and this will eventually kickstart economies. Meanwhile, economists are predicting a long and deep slump.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator September 2020
US COVID-19 figures are receding, to the extent that Brazil has taken over as the world’s worst managed country. A number of western European countries are experiencing a minor rebound, likely because of holiday travel. India has suffered a high death toll but this is partly a reflect of its huge population.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator July 2020
Global statistics indicate that while new cases of COVID-19 are rising, case mortality is stable at about 4,000 per day. The situation is in hand, but the danger is not over. First, the Americas, dominated by the US and Brazil, are confronted by rising case statistics. Second, there are signals of a rebound in autumn, both in theory as medical experts embrace the thought and in practice, as the figures in Iran show. Third, the equality protests increase the chances of a second wave.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator June 2020
In the EU, statistics for both contagion and death by COVID-19 are still diminishing. Relaxing restrictions typically causes a short recurrence. The UK and Sweden are behind the curve.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: April 2020
This months’ figures were collected before the successive stock-market slumps.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: February 2020
Net bond sentiment is trending down, yet remains stable in Japan
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: January 2020
Bond sentiment remains stable, but still negative. US net bond sentiment is edging towards zero, which is surprising as the Fed is set on neutral.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: December 2019
With the shift to a strong negative bond sentiment in the UK, markets have again split. For the UK and EU, the figures are more negative and trending down.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: November 2019
Bond sentiment has been trending upwards for a year, approaching a net value of zero everywhere, except in the EU. Analysts contend that central banks have secured a soft landing.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: October 2019
There has been a widening of the equity sentiment gap between the euro-zone and the US, and the UK and Japan.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: September 2019
Market sentiment has split in two. For the euro-zone and the US, there was a correction that did not affect trends and equities are still favoured. In the UK and Japan, sentiment is moving towards favouring bonds
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: July 2019
Markets are still driven by political risk and growth prospects. It looks like the two risks are working in the same direction this month.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: August 2019
It looks like political risk is taking a back seat to growth this month, continuing last month’s trend.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2019
Last months’ move away from political risk continued this month for the US, the EU and Japan. The UK figures were stable or moving slightly in the opposite direction, reflecting worries over Brexit with the UK body politic in disarray.
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