All articles by Peter Kraneveld – Page 3

  • Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator commentary April 2022

    April 2022 (Magazine)

    With a threat of nuclear war looming, Russia increasingly looking exhausted and desperate but unwilling to make concessions and a Russian default threatening, the world is again as dangerous as it was during the cold war. A default now cannot be compared with Russia’s de facto default in 1998.

  • Net sentiment equities
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator – March 2022

    March 2022 (Magazine)

    Political risk is back. Russian aggression towards Ukraine inserts considerable amounts of uncertainty. Asset owners will in general not suffer significant direct consequences for a well-diversified portfolio, but there are potential implications for energy prices that come at a time when inflation was already making a comeback and on top of unexpected military expenditure when budgets are already charged by COVID-19-related outlays

  • Net sentiment bonds - February 2022
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2022

    February 2022 (Magazine)

    Wait and see
    Omicron surprised a world that thought COVID was almost over. Infections shot up in the EU, UK and US, reaching all-time highs, especially in France. However, while absolute levels remain high, the curves have turned and panic is abating. Death rates were little affected.

  • Net sentiment bonds - January 2022
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2022

    January 2022 (Magazine)

    Being sure of opinions
    With all eyes on inflation, political risk is not expressed in market sentiment, perhaps with the exception of the UK.

  • Net Sentiment Bonds - December 2021
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2021

    December 2021 (Magazine)

    IPE’s sentiment statistics for 2021 are highly unusual. First, they were moving closely together, with one exception only – confidence in Japanese bonds remained an outlier throughout the year, with the gap with other areas increasing steadily.

  • Net sentiment bonds - Nov 2021
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator: November 2021

    November 2021 (Magazine)

    In Brazil, India and Japan, figures for new COVID-19 infections are low and descending. In the EU, they are low and rising, in particular in the former eastern bloc countries and areas. The US curve is going down fast from a high level. The statistics for Russia and in particular the UK are worrisome to bad. These two countries have relied on vector-based vaccines that are, on average, less effective.

  • Net sentiment equities
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2021

    October 2021 (Magazine)

    The much-feared post-summer holiday effect on COVID-19 contaminations did not materialise. The current wave started earlier and statistics are already trending down in the US, EU, UK and Japan, although still at a high level. Full vaccinations are over 60% in the EU and UK, with Japan catching up fast. Emerging markets are still significantly behind in tackling the pandemic.

  • Peter Kraneveld
    Opinion Pieces

    Viewpoint: Dump fossil fuels?

    24 September 2021

    It is unrealistic to expect energy to become cheaper in the months to come

  • Net sentiment equities
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - September 2021

    September 2021 (Magazine)

    The delta variant has caused a new COVID-19 wave in many places but it is different in character from previous ones. New hospital admissions are typically from among the unvaccinated. The average age of COVID patients has also come down significantly. In western Europe, the current wave seems largely under control, albeit at higher levels in the old EU member states.

  • Net Sentiment Bonds - July 2021
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - July 2021

    July/August 2021 (Magazine)

    At the time of writing, over half of the US population was vaccinated against COVID-19 with the EU at 40%. UK figures give a positive picture but the threat of new strains remains. The G7 have announced plans to supply vaccines to developing countries.

  • Net sentiment equities
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - August 2021

    July/August 2021 (Magazine)

    The next wave of COVID-19 has come to pass earlier than expected, largely due to new variants. The UK is hard hit, being sensitive to variants Alpha, Beta and Delta. The EU is next in line, with the Netherlands, Spain and Denmark in the forefront and Delta playing a leading role, but other member states are right behind. There is no sign of the next wave in the US yet, but it is sensitive to the variants Gamma and possibly Alpha, which plays a role in Canada.

  • Net sentiment equities
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - June 2021

    June 2021 (Magazine)

    The UK experience with vaccination suggests that COVID-19 case numbers start falling when about half the population is immunised. The US will soon reach that level. The EU is over the 30% mark while Japan is at 3%. Taking the BRIC countries as a proxy for emerging markets, Brazil scores 16%, while Russia and India have reached about 10%. China has not published its vaccination figures. Meanwhile, new strains remain a source of concern.

  • Net Sentiment Equities
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - May 2021

    May 2021 (Magazine)

    COVID-19 infection rates are still rising in the US and Japan, hopefully on the verge of decreasing in the EU and low in the UK. The positive trend in global infection rates is more than undone by a strong rise in infections in parts of Asia. With the exception of the UK and Israel, vaccination has not progressed to the stage where it has a discernible influence on infection rates.

  • Net Sentiment Bonds
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - April 2021

    April 2021 (Magazine)

    COVID-19 vaccination figures are rapidly increasing in Europe despite supply problems. Vaccinations are still restricted to vulnerable groups in many countries although the UK is a notable exception. Some countries have imposed new lockdown measures.

  • Net Sentiment Bonds - March 2021
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2021

    March 2021 (Magazine)

    Vaccination figures are rising steadily, but are still at a relatively low level. The US and UK, both important vaccine producers, lead the field with the EU and Japan lagging. As the speed of vaccination has increased, supplies have become a problem, except in the UK. This has caused bad feelings in the EU to the point where a trade war was threatened. New vaccines are in the regulatory pipeline but market shares have largely already been divided in the developed countries. The discovery of new COVID-19 mutations and their resistance to vaccines are an additional risk.

  • Net sentiment equities - Feb 2021
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2021

    February 2021 (Magazine)

    Interest has shifted from contamination and mortality data to vaccination figures. In this field, the US and UK are doing well, while the EU and Japan are lagging. Political risk is perceived to have gone. Donald Trump’s tendency to self-destruct is creating opportunities for the Republican Party to heal while Democrats are preparing an economic support package. 

  • Net sentiment bonds - January 2021
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2021

    January 2021 (Magazine)

    US COVID-19 figures were rising rapidly at the time of writing. Western European figures were divided. Many showed a climbdown from the second wave but Germany, the UK and the Netherlands were faced with growing figures. Japan’s statistics were up, forming a third wave. In a few weeks, we will know how the deployed vaccines work in practice.

  • Net sentiment equities - December 2020
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2020

    December 2020 (Magazine)

    US COVID-19 case numbers were rising rapidly at the time of writing. Western European figures suggest that the lockdowns are repelling the second wave. Japan’s statistics suggest a third wave is coming. Only an efficient vaccination and a high participation in inoculation programmes can end the threat posed by COVID-19.

  • Net Sentiment equities - November 2020
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2020

    November 2020 (Magazine)

    The two overriding concerns for global markets are the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in many parts of the world and the US elections. In relation to the pandemic it is impossible to know exactly when it will be brought under control. In the US there is a real chance that Joe Biden will win the presidency and the Democrats gain a majority in the senate.

  • Net Sentiment Equities - October 2020
    Features

    IPE Quest Expectations Indicator October 2020

    October (2020) Magazine

    Globally, net equity sentiment is close to record levels, while net bond sentiment is flat or down to near record levels. A scenario explained by a virtual consensus that central banks can continue to pump liquidity into the system and this will eventually kickstart economies. Meanwhile, economists are predicting a long and deep slump.