All articles by Peter Kraneveld – Page 2
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: monthly commentary
Political risk has decreased. An attack in the north-east of Ukraine took the Russian army by surprise but did not cause collateral damage in Russia. Russians’ resistance to the war is mounting but far from a critical level. It looks like the EU will survive the winter without major energy disruption and caps on energy prices are falling into place.
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FeaturesIPE-Quest Expectations Indicator commentary August 2022
The war in Ukraine has reached stalemate. Neither party is capable of a surprise win, but time works against Russia. Can Zelensky keep the army motivated to continue? A long, hot European summer
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FeaturesIPE-Quest Expectations Indicator commentary June 2022
The longer Russia refuses to make concessions, the more it loses, both in territory and in ‘face’. The Russian army has suffered even more loss of face than the Russian government. Analysts believe Europe and the UK now run the most risk. Perhaps, but in a post-war environment, they stand to gain most from reconstruction works in the Ukraine as well as the energy transition speeding up at home.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator commentary May 2022
Ukraine is slowly gaining the upper hand, while Russia is still unwilling to make concessions. Putin is trying to play his nuclear card, a dangerous move, making himself the major obstacle to stopping the appalling Russian losses in people and equipment. Meanwhile, Zelensky lost points by creating an issue with Germany when he can’t afford to lose points.
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Opinion PiecesViewpoint: Post-war Ukraine
Post-war Ukraine offers threats and opportunities. Peter Kraneveld says it will pay to keep an eye on some key factors
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Features
IPE Quest Expectations Indicator commentary April 2022
With a threat of nuclear war looming, Russia increasingly looking exhausted and desperate but unwilling to make concessions and a Russian default threatening, the world is again as dangerous as it was during the cold war. A default now cannot be compared with Russia’s de facto default in 1998.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – March 2022
Political risk is back. Russian aggression towards Ukraine inserts considerable amounts of uncertainty. Asset owners will in general not suffer significant direct consequences for a well-diversified portfolio, but there are potential implications for energy prices that come at a time when inflation was already making a comeback and on top of unexpected military expenditure when budgets are already charged by COVID-19-related outlays
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2022
Wait and see
Omicron surprised a world that thought COVID was almost over. Infections shot up in the EU, UK and US, reaching all-time highs, especially in France. However, while absolute levels remain high, the curves have turned and panic is abating. Death rates were little affected. -
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2022
Being sure of opinions
With all eyes on inflation, political risk is not expressed in market sentiment, perhaps with the exception of the UK. -
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2021
IPE’s sentiment statistics for 2021 are highly unusual. First, they were moving closely together, with one exception only – confidence in Japanese bonds remained an outlier throughout the year, with the gap with other areas increasing steadily.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: November 2021
In Brazil, India and Japan, figures for new COVID-19 infections are low and descending. In the EU, they are low and rising, in particular in the former eastern bloc countries and areas. The US curve is going down fast from a high level. The statistics for Russia and in particular the UK are worrisome to bad. These two countries have relied on vector-based vaccines that are, on average, less effective.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2021
The much-feared post-summer holiday effect on COVID-19 contaminations did not materialise. The current wave started earlier and statistics are already trending down in the US, EU, UK and Japan, although still at a high level. Full vaccinations are over 60% in the EU and UK, with Japan catching up fast. Emerging markets are still significantly behind in tackling the pandemic.
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Opinion PiecesViewpoint: Dump fossil fuels?
It is unrealistic to expect energy to become cheaper in the months to come
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - September 2021
The delta variant has caused a new COVID-19 wave in many places but it is different in character from previous ones. New hospital admissions are typically from among the unvaccinated. The average age of COVID patients has also come down significantly. In western Europe, the current wave seems largely under control, albeit at higher levels in the old EU member states.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - July 2021
At the time of writing, over half of the US population was vaccinated against COVID-19 with the EU at 40%. UK figures give a positive picture but the threat of new strains remains. The G7 have announced plans to supply vaccines to developing countries.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - August 2021
The next wave of COVID-19 has come to pass earlier than expected, largely due to new variants. The UK is hard hit, being sensitive to variants Alpha, Beta and Delta. The EU is next in line, with the Netherlands, Spain and Denmark in the forefront and Delta playing a leading role, but other member states are right behind. There is no sign of the next wave in the US yet, but it is sensitive to the variants Gamma and possibly Alpha, which plays a role in Canada.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - June 2021
The UK experience with vaccination suggests that COVID-19 case numbers start falling when about half the population is immunised. The US will soon reach that level. The EU is over the 30% mark while Japan is at 3%. Taking the BRIC countries as a proxy for emerging markets, Brazil scores 16%, while Russia and India have reached about 10%. China has not published its vaccination figures. Meanwhile, new strains remain a source of concern.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - May 2021
COVID-19 infection rates are still rising in the US and Japan, hopefully on the verge of decreasing in the EU and low in the UK. The positive trend in global infection rates is more than undone by a strong rise in infections in parts of Asia. With the exception of the UK and Israel, vaccination has not progressed to the stage where it has a discernible influence on infection rates.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - April 2021
COVID-19 vaccination figures are rapidly increasing in Europe despite supply problems. Vaccinations are still restricted to vulnerable groups in many countries although the UK is a notable exception. Some countries have imposed new lockdown measures.
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