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NewsDenmark’s AkademikerPension divests US company for nuclear weapons links
Pension fund blacklists three Chinese firms and one US firm for links to aiding nuclear weapons outside the EU
White papersThe Scarcity Trade: Why Critical Metals Are the Real AI Play
Commodities are entering a new structural phase defined by scarcity, geopolitics and surging demand for the metals underpinning AI, electrification and defence. Yet financial markets remain largely unprepared for the physical supply constraints required to build it — creating a compelling opportunity: critical metals offer both return potential and a natural hedge to AI risk.
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NewsDAX firms push fully funded pensions despite regulatory complexity
German corporates increasingly fund pension liabilities fully, strengthening governance, reducing risk, and supporting profitability amid regulation
White papersOut of the Black Box: Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs via Conditional Probabilities
Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on preceding context. We leverage these conditional probabilities to construct an entropy-based measure of prediction uncertainty, which we term inner confidence. Predictions with higher inner confidence are systematically more accurate.
White papersModeling and Forecasting of Large Unbalanced Option Implied Volatility Surfaces
Forecasting the option implied volatility (IV) surface is difficult with standard time-series models because of its time-varying granularity. We propose a new two-step real-time sequential forecasting framework. The first step fits the daily surface and can accommodate any underlying specification for option prices or IVs, including dynamic option-pricing models, nonparametric methods, and machine-learning techniques. In the second step, we sequentially estimate a dynamic IV model using an updating rule.
White papersPure momentum
Momentum trading strategies exploit return persistence, but conventional past-year cumulative-return measures generate a noisy signal that attenuates performance. We propose a pure momentum strategy that identifies trends directly from daily returns. Our method reduces volatility, tail risk, and transaction costs while enhancing profitability. Performance is primarily driven by long positions in winners, supporting theories postulating overconfidence. The bad news, instead, appears to be incorporated more slowly. In particular, we show that omitting the most recent month is unnecessary to identify winners.
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NewsUK authority embraces supervision as ESG frameworks mature
Financial Conduct Authority signals end of rule-heavy ESG phase, prioritising supervision and embedding existing sustainability frameworks
PodcastIran: A temporary shock or a persistent shift? - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions
The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi’s investment views.
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NewsPension funds drive recovery in German Spezialfonds after lean years
German pension funds led a sharp rebound in Spezialfonds inflows, as institutional demand recovered strongly in 2025
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NewsEssentra pension plan completes £104m buy-in deal with Aviva
The transaction, which secures benefits of both deferred and pensioner members, is the second deal between Aviva and the plan’s trustees
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NewsUK Lords back DC scale exemption in Pension Schemes Bill
Peers approve DC scale exemption, challenging UK consolidation push and reinforcing focus on member outcomes
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NewsNorway’s SWF says UK should be stricter in green reporting proposal
NBIM responds to FCA’s proposed new sustainability disclosure rules for listed companies; calls for timelines for Scope 3 emissions reporting to become mandatory
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NewsChurch of England Pensions Board to vote against climate-backtracking banks
‘No’ votes already planned for AGMs of NatWest, Santander, and HSBC
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NewsLifeSight to launch retirement CDC solution
The collective defined contribution solution will help address growing challenge of converting DC savings into sustainable retirement income
White papersDiversification Without Complication: The Case for Global Bonds in 2026
After an extended period of declining yields and credit spreads, we believe the fixed income environment is becoming increasingly nuanced. Near-neutral rates, tight spreads and elevated macro and political risks require investors to tread carefully in setting exposures while taking a broader approach to maximizing the opportunities that will present themselves. With such a backdrop, we believe global bond portfolios offer an effective way to manage risk, reduce home country bias and expand potential for long-term performance, often providing a complement to existing exposures.
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NewsIcelandic pension fund majors beat the average, as inflation weighs on all
Gildi reports 3.3% real return for 2025, LV produces 3.2%, while smaller Stapi delivers 1.8%
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NewsTPT Retirement Solutions hires superfund head to evolve proposition
Steve Collins was hired as TPT’s new head of superfund to play a ‘key role’ in helping bring the proposition to market
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NewsFinancial analysts’ culture shapes production of long-term info, research finds
Inherited cultural values around long-term thinking underappreciated in financial markets, says co-author
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NewsPanasonic pension plan completes bulk purchase annuity transaction with M&G
The £140m transaction is M&G’s first to use LCP’s streamlined buy-in service
White papersCentral Banks and bond yields in focus
“The stagflationary impulse from the conflict will reshape the growth and inflation risk trade-off, creating a policy dilemma for central banks globally. Overall, we expect central banks to postpone easing, but not to reverse it, a wait-and-see stance seems plausible and appropriate.”
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