All Currency articles

  • Karel Lannoo
    Features

    A flawed EU crypto regulatory framework

    July/August 2022 (Magazine)

    The EU will soon have a specific regulatory framework for crypto currencies and markets. Under proposals soon to be adopted, only crypto coins authorised in the EU will be allowed to be offered to investors. But crypto assets and exchanges will have a very light supervisory regime, much less than what is in place for financial instruments and exchanges. This raises the question about the rationale for distinct rules. This question is even more acute in the context of the big decline in the crypto markets over the past weeks.

  • Global supply shortages:price changes
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: inflation battle in full swing

    July/August 2022 (Magazine)

    As we reach the midpoint of the year, there is little sign that the second half of 2022 will be any less turbulent than the first. The conflict in Ukraine slogs on – a destructive war of attrition, pain and fear. The repercussions are huge, global and unpredictable, be they surging energy prices or impending, but acute, shortages of basic foodstuffs, or of semi-conductors, so vital to 21st century life.

  • Kaspar Hense
    Features

    Yen’s swift dive surprises market

    June 2022 (Magazine)

    For several decades, the Japanese yen has not been in the limelight too often. However, earlier this year it became headline news as the currency began to depreciate rapidly against the US dollar. Although investors were not overly surprised that the yen would weaken, the speed of its decline was certainly startling. Over the course of about 15 months, between the start of 2021 to early April 2022, the yen has lost about 25% of its value against the dollar, with nearly half the move occurring in that final month. 

  • China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: disappearing safe havens

    June 2022 (Magazine)

    Risk markets have been having a torrid time of late. ‘Risk-free’ government bond markets are not providing any safe havens in these storms, with curves steepening and considerable volatility in longer rates. 

  • Consumer confidence indicator for EU and euro area
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Markets grapple with inflation and slowdown

    May 2022 (Magazine)

    The global outlook for economic growth is deteriorating, with repeatedly revised economic forecasts pointing to ever-higher inflation and lower GDP growth. The far-reaching impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, moving principally through energy and commodity channels, have exacerbated so many of the world’s existing pandemic-related supply-side bottlenecks, which had been gradually easing in the weeks and months before Russia invaded.

  • Screenshot 2022-04-01 at 12.29.38
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currencies: War and inflation dominate

    April 2022 (Magazine)

    While we watch horrible scenes of towns and cities under bombardment, their bewildered and bloodied citizens desperately searching for safety, the huge shockwaves generated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine are spreading rapidly far beyond both countries’ borders.

  • Aggregate expected probability distributions for inflation 2022
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Inflation spotlight on central banks

    March 2022 (Magazine)

    Not often far from the action, central banks have been centre stage in 2022 as one after another in the developed markets reveal their hawkish intents. The speed and synchronicity with which they have shifted has been pretty remarkable, with only the Bank of Japan not yet joining other main central banks.

  • US 10-year vs five-year breakeven inflation rate
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: COVID starts to lose grip on GDP

    February 2022 (Magazine)

    COVID’s huge influence on all our lives, whether through disruption of global supply chains or threats of lockdowns in the face of soaring infection rates, was reasonably constant throughout 2021. However, it now appears that GDP numbers have become generally less sensitive to COVID infection rates than they were, say, 18 months ago, with high vaccination rates (certainly across developed markets), and an awareness from politicians that the public’s willingness to comply with lockdowns may be waning fast. 

  • Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation
    Features

    Ahead of the curve: The rise of altcoins and potential institutional adoption

    February 2022 (Magazine)

    It is interesting to sit between traditional investors and the crypto-native communities: one has just started on the Bitcoin adoption curve while the other might already consider Bitcoin to be a ‘boomer coin’.  

  • US employment-to-population ratio
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Economies at a sensitive juncture

    January 2022 (Magazine)

    Another new year and we are still in a COVID pandemic, as we were a year ago, although this time with economic grow-th looking pretty robust across the world. But, despite the best efforts of healthcare workers, scientists and politicians, the virus continues to exert an unnervingly strong influence on all our lives. 

  • UK tax-to-GDP ratio
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Policy normalisation kicks in

    December 2021 (Magazine)

    Although several emerging market (EM) central banks have been hiking rates for a few months already this year, particularly in Latin America, it was only in the third quarter of 2021 that the global share of central banks raising official rates moved above 50%. This is the first time in three years that this has been the case, as several developed market central banks joined emerging market counterparts to tighten rates.

  • Daniil Shapiro-4.9.19
    Features

    Letter from US: Crypto currencies gain a toe-hold in America’s 401(k) retirement plans

    December 2021 (Magazine)

    Crypto investing is not going to become mainstream any time soon in 401(k) plans. But the US retirement market is becoming more and more sophisticated – investors are becoming interested in digital assets, and asset managers, platform providers and consultants are all developing digital products and services.

  • IHS Markit-BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Simmering tensions bubble up

    November 2021 (Magazine)

    After a reasonably peaceful summer – relative to the many previous volatile ones for capital markets, that is – simmering tensions are bubbling over, affecting many financial asset classes.

  • Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Not quite back to normal

    October 2021 (Magazine)

    As the world struggles to get back to pre-pandemic conditions, with schools and offices open, economic forecasting seems even less predictable than ever. Take August’s US payrolls report, which again confounded most forecasters. Analysts scrambled to explain why the headline job gains were so weak, particularly after the huge (forecast-beating) gains the previous month.

  • Government bond yields
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Market signals cloud the picture

    September 2021 (Magazine)

    From preliminary data, Europe’s second-quarter growth appears to have been surprisingly strong, seemingly led by services, such as strong retail sales. Supply-side problems are still constraining the goods sector generally, hitting the German economy especially, with industrial production falling more than one percentage point over the second quarter. 

  • Slack remains in the US economy
    Features

    Fixed Income, Rates, Currencies: Trickier than usual

    July/August 2021 (Magazine)

    Amongst the myriad of investment conundrums facing investors, one of the more pressing today is whether – or not – the US economy will overheat. Though the Federal Reserve has done a good job assuring the markets that while (US) inflation data may indeed print higher than “target”, Chair Jerome Powell will be “looking through” any rises. They have argued that these should be temporary and a dovish outlook will remain.

  • Justin Chapman
    Features

    Briefing: Bonds on the blockchain

    July/August 2021 (Magazine)

    Bitcoin’s wild ride has been hard to ignore this past year. However, it has mainly attracted its stalwart audience of retail investors, family offices and hedge funds. Institutional investors mostly sat on the sidelines, although interest has been piqued. Digital assets, most notably bonds and not cryptocurrencies, are likely to garner the inflows owing to the comfort of regulation and established market infrastructure. 

  • Fornasari_Francesca_C1-Hires
    Features

    Briefing: Central bank digital currencies take shape

    July/August 2021 (Magazine)

    Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), also sometimes called govcoins, have suddenly become a subject of public discussion. Until recently the topic was mainly the preserve of a coterie of technical experts working for central banks and niche technology firms. But now there seems to be immense excitement about their potential to transform finance. There are even some who suggest the new technology could allow the renminbi to overtake the dollar as the world’s leading cross-border currency.

  • EU and euro-zone annual unemployment rate
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Still missing the target

    June 2021 (Magazine)

    Most would agree that one data release from an important but volatile dataset – employment figures – should be read with caveats. However, the scale of the forecasting ‘miss’ for April’s US job numbers was hard to dismiss as just noise.

  • The attractive performance of cryptocurrencies is raising interest in their use as an alternative investment strategy
    Features

    Letter from US: The rise of the new alternatives

    June 2021 (Magazine)

    Pension funds and other institutional investors used to invest in hedge funds aspiring to outperform public stock and bond benchmarks. Now, after years of disappointing performances, they have changed their attitude. They still invest in hedge funds, but the new expectation is simply to get a few percentage points above the return on zero risk investments.