All Currency articles

  • Refinitiv graph

    Is the US finally heading for a soft landing?

    December 2023 (Magazine)

    Having come to terms with the higher-for-longer mantra, markets are grappling with ‘higher-for-even-longer’, as US economic resilience continues to challenge expectations of weakness while reducing the prospects for earlier interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. 

  • Is Sweden heading for a recession

    Fixed income, rates & currency: interest rates the big question

    November 2023 (Magazine)

    In August, when Fitch Ratings downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, it cited an “erosion of governance” as one of the key reasons for its decision. September’s US government shutdown chaos will probably not have improved perceptions of US lawmakers’ proficiency to govern.

  • Refinitiv 2023 Oct

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Lean times to follow good summer?

    October 2023 (Magazine)

    The macro-economic news in the third quarter has been good, with better growth than expected and better inflation data than feared. In the final few months of the year, however, markets may have to deal with the potential for some softer economic news and possibly more negative inflation data, and not just from seasonal factors.

  • China’s real GDP growth
    Asset Class Reports

    Local currency emerging market bonds are back in the spotlight

    October 2023 (magazine)

    Partly thanks to the weakening of the US dollar, local currency emerging market sovereigns are now offering healthy yields, and should continue to perform well   

  • Gustavo Medeiros

    The US dollar’s declining status as a global reserve currency

    September 2023 (Magazine)

    The recent US debt ceiling negotiations have brought into question the viability of the US dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. Long-term investors have been reviewing their strategic asset allocation away from the currency, seeking to diversify their exposure and to take advantage of long-term investment opportunities. 

  • Chile’s central bank has started to cut rates

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Uncertainty persists

    September 2023 (Magazine)

    As the major central banks in developed markets reach, or at least near, the end of their hiking cycles, markets, rather than identifying when policy rates will peak, focus is now on the conundrum of just how long these policy peaks will be maintained.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

    Fixed income, rates & currency: US debt crisis averted – what next?

    July/August 2023 (Magazine)

    The US debt ceiling crisis was resolved in June, avoiding potentially major fireworks, with a suspension of the limit until early 2025. This ensures that the next time the politicians have to fight about it will be after the November 2024 presidential election. Although markets were relieved at the temporary resolution, the process of rebuilding the very depleted Treasury cash balances – with some huge bill auctions planned – will drain significant liquidity from the system, which could put pressure on the rates market.

  • Matthews, Russel

    FX in waiting mode after lively 2022

    July/August 2023 (Magazine)

    After a long period of muted volatility, currency markets sprang back into action in 2022 as geopolitical risk and diverging monetary policy came to the fore. This year it is quieter, but markets remain rattled over the unpredictable interest rate scenarios. As a result, many market participants are waiting for a sharper picture to emerge. 

  • S&P Capital IQ

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Strong labour markets surprise

    June 2023 (Magazine)

    Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, which measures the state of the US economy, has been mostly strong, although manufacturing indices have been considerably weaker than services, perhaps reflecting their greater sensitivity to higher interest rates.

  • UK- ratio of export prices to import prices

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Chill winds prompt caution

    May 2023 (Magazine)

    Although 2022 was a remarkably bad year for bonds and equities, any hopes that 2023 might illuminate a brighter path have already been dispelled as rapidly changing narratives – from recession to boom to fears of a banking crisis – all tossed and turned stock and rates markets. The result was a remarkably turbulent first quarter. 

  • Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Optimism fades on mixed data

    April 2023 (Magazine)

    January’s market optimism has been subsiding, as forecasts for inflation and US Federal Reserve policy shift the outlook further to the hawkish side. However, the macro picture is not clear. Markets hang on to every new piece of data to clarify the outlook, be it non-farm payrolls, the consumer price index (CPI) or the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). 

  • WTI crude oil prices (NYMEX), Feb 2003–Feb 2023

    From soft landing to no landing

    March 2023 (Magazine)

    Once again, the US jobs market has shown its capacity to surprise forecasters, if not astonish them. January’s non-farm payroll numbers came in way above consensus forecasts, swiftly reversing markets’ dovish take on that week’s central bank actions, with bond markets handing back much of their earlier gains.  

  • Central banks and the weaponisation of finance

    Central banks and the weaponisation of finance

    March 2023 (Magazine)

    The US has been a global power since the second world war. But it was during the interval between the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the rise of China in the 21st century that the US was perhaps the single global hegemon. 

  • Swen Werner_State Street

    Ahead of the curve: The missing elements in the digital currencies debate

    March 2023 (Magazine)

    The recent contraction of the cryptocurrency markets poses questions about the viability of digital currency as an asset class for institutional investors. However, these developments have not undermined the efforts of central banks to pursue their own digital currency initiatives. 

  • Office for National Statistics Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey

    Is the US heading for a soft landing?

    February 2023 (Magazine)

    Rare though they are in history, a soft landing for the US economy seems to be the consensus forecast, a view aided by news of a sharp contraction in the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers index in December. The jobs market also looks like it is slowing down and there are signs of a cooling off in wages, with lower-than-expected average hourly earnings reported in December’s non-farm payroll report. 

  • Japan government bond (JGB) 10-year yield and inflation-indexed bonds (JGBi) 10-year yield

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Inflation strengthens its grip

    January 2023 (Magazine)

    Whereas news of the hostilities in Ukraine may be losing their potential to shock and dislocate the world economic order, inflation news has maintained its powerful hold over financial markets across the world throughout 2022, with many economies recording their highest inflation levels for decades.

  • Luca Paolini

    US dollar strength and the issues facing institutional investors

    December 2022 (Magazine)

    Most central banks across the world are raising interest rates – some more aggressively than others – but it is proving hard for any of them to out-hike the US Federal Reserve. The resulting widening interest rate differentials have been an important factor in the appreciation of the US currency.

  • US Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Recessions - but when?

    December 2022 (Magazine)

    With the fourth consecutive 75bps hike in rates delivered in November, US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested that the pace of the hikes might be slowed in the coming months (so slightly dovish), but then said that the terminal rate and how long it would be held was more important than the speed of tightening (back to hawkish). The initial dollar sell-off was unwound by the end of the press conference.

  • Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS)

    Fixed income, rates & currency: The return of extreme volatility

    November 2022 (Magazine)

    The emergency measures swiftly enacted by policymakers and central banks in March 2020, as we locked our communities, schools and businesses down, unsurprisingly created huge volatility in financial markets.

  • US dollar index DXY

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Central banks act tough

    October 2022 (Magazine)

    This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual high-level event sponsored by the Reserve Bank of Kansas, yielded relatively little policy news. But the fighting talk from the US Federal Reserve and others was striking. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech was markedly more hawkish than expected, while Isabel Schnabel, board member of the European Central Bank, referred to the need for central banks to act ‘forcefully’ because “both the likelihood and the cost of current high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high”.