All Currency articles

  • The yen hits lows not seen against the dollar since the 1990s
    Features

    US economy continues to surprise

    May 2024 (Magazine)

    The resilience of the US economy continues to confound observers. The Federal Reserve’s 11 hikes in interest rates over the course of 2022 and 2023 were implemented to rein in economic strength and to stifle inflation. Scroll forward to the second quarter of 2024 and both inflation and economic activity are still higher than expected.  

  • US bank failures through the past two decades
    Features

    Reluctance to drop interest rates disappoints the markets

    April 2024 (Magazine)

    US rates markets entered the year enthusiastically pricing in over 160 basis points of cuts through 2024, and have since had to push back hard on both the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts now expected by year-end. 

  • Currency exchange board
    News

    Swiss pension fund seeks FX hedging currency provider for CHF1.7bn

    2024-03-11T13:41:00Z

    Interested managers have until 13 March to participate and the pension fund is looking to start implementation from September

  • US Treasury
    Features

    Contrasting global economic growth fortunes

    March 2024 (magazine)

    Economic growth patterns across the world paint a picture of contrasts, ranging from surprisingly robust in the US to soft and struggling in China, with the stagnant euro area narrowly avoiding a technical recession after posting zero GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, following a 0.1% decline the previous quarter. 

  • New York Fed graph
    Features

    Conflict and elections set to dominate the investor landscape

    February 2024 (magazine)

    Middle Eastern tensions are running high, with violence flaring up across the wider region. Combined with the ongoing attritional destruction in Ukraine, this is impacting world trade, and it seems certain that international conflict will continue to be a source of great concern in 2024.

  • Argentine peso vs US dollar
    Features

    Will delayed economic bad news hit the market this year?

    January 2024 (Magazine)

    Global economic growth was below potential in 2023, but still markedly stronger than the forecasts had been indicating at the start of the year, with the US leading the way and even the likes of Europe and the UK, though hardly stellar performers, posting better than expected economic activity. 

  • US unemployment rate (%), 2004-2022, source: Refinitiv
    Features

    Is the US economy finally heading for a soft landing?

    December 2023 (Magazine)

    Having come to terms with the higher-for-longer mantra, markets are grappling with ‘higher-for-even-longer’, as US economic resilience continues to challenge expectations of weakness while reducing the prospects for earlier interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. 

  • Is Sweden heading for a recession
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: interest rates the big question

    November 2023 (Magazine)

    In August, when Fitch Ratings downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, it cited an “erosion of governance” as one of the key reasons for its decision. September’s US government shutdown chaos will probably not have improved perceptions of US lawmakers’ proficiency to govern.

  • Refinitiv 2023 Oct
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Lean times to follow good summer?

    October 2023 (Magazine)

    The macro-economic news in the third quarter has been good, with better growth than expected and better inflation data than feared. In the final few months of the year, however, markets may have to deal with the potential for some softer economic news and possibly more negative inflation data, and not just from seasonal factors.

  • China’s real GDP growth
    Asset Class Reports

    Local currency emerging market bonds are back in the spotlight

    October 2023 (Magazine)

    Partly thanks to the weakening of the US dollar, local currency emerging market sovereigns are now offering healthy yields, and should continue to perform well   

  • Gustavo Medeiros
    Features

    The US dollar’s declining status as a global reserve currency

    September 2023 (Magazine)

    The recent US debt ceiling negotiations have brought into question the viability of the US dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. Long-term investors have been reviewing their strategic asset allocation away from the currency, seeking to diversify their exposure and to take advantage of long-term investment opportunities. 

  • Chile’s central bank has started to cut rates
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Uncertainty persists

    September 2023 (Magazine)

    As the major central banks in developed markets reach, or at least near, the end of their hiking cycles, markets, rather than identifying when policy rates will peak, focus is now on the conundrum of just how long these policy peaks will be maintained.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: US debt crisis averted – what next?

    July/August 2023 (Magazine)

    The US debt ceiling crisis was resolved in June, avoiding potentially major fireworks, with a suspension of the limit until early 2025. This ensures that the next time the politicians have to fight about it will be after the November 2024 presidential election. Although markets were relieved at the temporary resolution, the process of rebuilding the very depleted Treasury cash balances – with some huge bill auctions planned – will drain significant liquidity from the system, which could put pressure on the rates market.

  • Matthews, Russel
    Features

    FX in waiting mode after lively 2022

    July/August 2023 (Magazine)

    After a long period of muted volatility, currency markets sprang back into action in 2022 as geopolitical risk and diverging monetary policy came to the fore. This year it is quieter, but markets remain rattled over the unpredictable interest rate scenarios. As a result, many market participants are waiting for a sharper picture to emerge. 

  • S&P Capital IQ
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Strong labour markets surprise

    June 2023 (Magazine)

    Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, which measures the state of the US economy, has been mostly strong, although manufacturing indices have been considerably weaker than services, perhaps reflecting their greater sensitivity to higher interest rates.

  • UK- ratio of export prices to import prices
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Chill winds prompt caution

    May 2023 (Magazine)

    Although 2022 was a remarkably bad year for bonds and equities, any hopes that 2023 might illuminate a brighter path have already been dispelled as rapidly changing narratives – from recession to boom to fears of a banking crisis – all tossed and turned stock and rates markets. The result was a remarkably turbulent first quarter. 

  • Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
    Features

    Fixed income, rates & currency: Optimism fades on mixed data

    April 2023 (Magazine)

    January’s market optimism has been subsiding, as forecasts for inflation and US Federal Reserve policy shift the outlook further to the hawkish side. However, the macro picture is not clear. Markets hang on to every new piece of data to clarify the outlook, be it non-farm payrolls, the consumer price index (CPI) or the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). 

  • WTI crude oil prices (NYMEX), Feb 2003–Feb 2023
    Features

    From soft landing to no landing

    March 2023 (Magazine)

    Once again, the US jobs market has shown its capacity to surprise forecasters, if not astonish them. January’s non-farm payroll numbers came in way above consensus forecasts, swiftly reversing markets’ dovish take on that week’s central bank actions, with bond markets handing back much of their earlier gains.  

  • Central banks and the weaponisation of finance
    Features

    Central banks and the weaponisation of finance

    March 2023 (Magazine)

    The US has been a global power since the second world war. But it was during the interval between the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the rise of China in the 21st century that the US was perhaps the single global hegemon. 

  • Swen Werner_State Street
    Features

    Ahead of the curve: The missing elements in the digital currencies debate

    March 2023 (Magazine)

    The recent contraction of the cryptocurrency markets poses questions about the viability of digital currency as an asset class for institutional investors. However, these developments have not undermined the efforts of central banks to pursue their own digital currency initiatives.