All Expectations Indicator articles – Page 4
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator July 2020
Global statistics indicate that while new cases of COVID-19 are rising, case mortality is stable at about 4,000 per day. The situation is in hand, but the danger is not over. First, the Americas, dominated by the US and Brazil, are confronted by rising case statistics. Second, there are signals of a rebound in autumn, both in theory as medical experts embrace the thought and in practice, as the figures in Iran show. Third, the equality protests increase the chances of a second wave.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator June 2020
In the EU, statistics for both contagion and death by COVID-19 are still diminishing. Relaxing restrictions typically causes a short recurrence. The UK and Sweden are behind the curve.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator May 2020
Using last month’s model of the statistics on daily new cases as an early indicator and daily case mortality as evidence of policy change, the 21 April situation looks like:
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: April 2020
This months’ figures were collected before the successive stock-market slumps.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: February 2020
Net bond sentiment is trending down, yet remains stable in Japan
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: January 2020
Bond sentiment remains stable, but still negative. US net bond sentiment is edging towards zero, which is surprising as the Fed is set on neutral.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: December 2019
With the shift to a strong negative bond sentiment in the UK, markets have again split. For the UK and EU, the figures are more negative and trending down.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: November 2019
Bond sentiment has been trending upwards for a year, approaching a net value of zero everywhere, except in the EU. Analysts contend that central banks have secured a soft landing.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: October 2019
There has been a widening of the equity sentiment gap between the euro-zone and the US, and the UK and Japan.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: September 2019
Market sentiment has split in two. For the euro-zone and the US, there was a correction that did not affect trends and equities are still favoured. In the UK and Japan, sentiment is moving towards favouring bonds
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: July 2019
Markets are still driven by political risk and growth prospects. It looks like the two risks are working in the same direction this month.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: August 2019
It looks like political risk is taking a back seat to growth this month, continuing last month’s trend.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2019
Last months’ move away from political risk continued this month for the US, the EU and Japan. The UK figures were stable or moving slightly in the opposite direction, reflecting worries over Brexit with the UK body politic in disarray.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: March 2019
When uncertainty hangs over the financial markets, indices tend to converge. That is true for net sentiment of equities
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