All Expectations Indicator articles – Page 2
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2023
The Russian war in the Ukraine is still stalling, with the prelude of the US elections coming closer. Trump’s self-destructive utterings keep his followers unmoved but do nothing to convince independents.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: September 2023
US officials are talking up the Ukrainian advance towards Melitopol, a sign that all is not well. Contrary to expectations, the biggest problem is not the Russian air force, but land mines. Trump’s legal problems are as worrisome as his inexplicable lead among Republicans. US abstinence in the struggle against climate change is a potential cause for a major trade war as the EU realises it must expand its regulations on importing ‘dirty’ products to prevent a free rider problem undermining its climate efforts. In the UK, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives remains crushing, making it difficult to claim the government has a popular mandate.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: July 2023
The war in Ukraine is starting to look like a stalemate. This would be in Russia’s favour. Delivery to Ukraine of more of the tanks promised or fighters to contest Russian air control might lead to a breakthrough, but is unlikely to happen in the summer. In the US, Trump looks like a leading but weak candidate for the Republicans, even against a Democrat as unpopular as Biden. Legal pushbacks against the fight to prevent permanent climate change, notably in Texas, have the potential to cause a trade war with the EU. They illustrate how European and North American values are slowly drifting apart.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: August 2023
Politics is on hold until September. Normally, markets do not care and analysts reduce their activity. A political crisis in the Netherlands shows the danger. There are warnings from all sides that climate measures are ever more urgently needed. Markets need a clearer view of which products govern- ments will support with market-shaping measures and when, especially in the face of a faltering pace towards climate goals. Early signs of problems include a lack of capital for innovative start-ups and the increasingly loud voices of climate change deniers.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2023
Continued loud bickering between the Wagner Group and the Russian army is protecting Putin from both, worsening the outlook for peace, while there are multiple signs that military supplies are approaching exhaustion. The coalition supporting Ukraine is stronger than ever, showing increasing willingness to provide military aircraft. Yet the offensive expected in February has not started. In the US, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is damaging his position with an unproductive row with Disney, while Trump has moved closer to a prison term. Gas consumption in the EU is falling faster than expected, due to efficiencies like heat pumps, changeover to electricity and solar panels. Macron scored nicely by sponsoring the participation of Zelensky at the Hiroshima G7; Sunak failed to centre political attention on China.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator May 2023
Russian air superiority over Ukraine is coming to an end due to lack of equipment. Destroying civilian targets is counterproductive and consumes ammunition. Bakhmut is eating into Russian resources, while Ukraine is being re-armed. History teaches that better technology, rather than numerical superiority, wins wars. But even a lopsided Ukrainian win would not automatically mean peace.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator April 2023
With new, superior equipment, the Ukrainian military is set to start an offensive soon. Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, is jockeying to become Russia’s next kleptocrat on the back of the Russian army. Donald Trump’s candidacy is increasingly beleaguered by defeats in court. The trade agreement on Northern Ireland between the EU and the UK is a significant boon for both as well as for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, not because the trade flows are so important but because the issue blocked co-operation in many other fields. While the winter has been mild and beneficial, there are early signs of a dry spring, quite possible in view of climate change setting in. If that materialises, harvests, therefore food prices, will be affected in autumn.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator March 2023
The next Ukrainian offensive will be in April at the earliest, as modern tanks will have arrived by then. US Republican pushback of ESG and climate-related investments are a new bone of contention in relations with the EU, already strained by the Trump presidency, and a bad sign for US-EU co-operation on China policy, an issue Japan seems to be ducking successfully. Aided by a soft winter, EU energy concerns have become quite manageable.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: February 2023
Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians are hampered by efficient air defence. With weapons for the Ukrainian military on the way, a new offensive seems imminent. US President Joe Biden’s troubles over classified documents are a relief for Republicans. The threat of a US-EU trade conflict over China is growing as both sides retreat into nationalistic behaviour. In the UK, Conservatives are under threat of predicted historic losses, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak so far has done nothing to repair relations with the EU.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2023
Better air defence and the ground freezing over are steadily improving the outlook for Ukraine’s forces, now locked in stalemate. A series of blunders haunts US Republicans in general and Trump in particular. If Biden’s stimulus package is enacted, it will counteract Fed policy, possibly prolonging the series of interest rate increases. The EU seems to have bought too much gas. It has agreed to take border measures against some products from climate change laggard countries.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: December 2022
The Ukrainian offensives look to have petered out and a new initiative will be needed to maintain morale. The US government is once again gridlocked and another debt ceiling fight is likely. The EU seems ready even for a harsh winter, but there are signs of war fatigue. In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has apparently learned from the Liz Truss debacle, quickly making the necessary political U-turns, in particular on climate change. Expectations for the COP27 meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh were low. Analyst views indicate increasing belief that the wave of interest rate increases is receding.
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Features
IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2022
In general, political risk remained the same, except in the UK. The Russian offensive against Ukrainian civil infrastructure is useless. If it should succeed, Russia has no means to exploit it militarily. Ukraine is set to recover Kherson. In the EU, France is trying to cope with a vicious strike that blocks petrol deliveries, but its side effect is a push towards hybrid and non-petrol cars. Japan is worried over implicit North Korean nuclear threats. In the UK political risk has increased fast with a crisis caused by government tax plans that has sapped trust on several levels. The data indicate that analysts believe that the wave of interest rate increases is near (if not over) its top and that bonds are now becoming more attractive than equities for the first time in many years.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: monthly commentary
Political risk has decreased. An attack in the north-east of Ukraine took the Russian army by surprise but did not cause collateral damage in Russia. Russians’ resistance to the war is mounting but far from a critical level. It looks like the EU will survive the winter without major energy disruption and caps on energy prices are falling into place.
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Features
IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - September 2022
The war in Ukraine is characterised by a build-up for the battle for Kherson. The result of that campaign is likely to have great political influence on both sides. Neither is capable of a surprise win, but time works against Russia. In the US, Trump’s legal troubles are serious and mounting, but any Republican successor may be even more destructive. The EU is running against time to prepare for winter. Both optimists and pessimists are over-estimating the ability of technicians to predict the future. Russia has lost the EU as a primary customer for its oil and gas. It must make up for higher distribution costs by offering significant discounts.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator commentary May 2022
Ukraine is slowly gaining the upper hand, while Russia is still unwilling to make concessions. Putin is trying to play his nuclear card, a dangerous move, making himself the major obstacle to stopping the appalling Russian losses in people and equipment. Meanwhile, Zelensky lost points by creating an issue with Germany when he can’t afford to lose points.
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Features
IPE Quest Expectations Indicator commentary April 2022
With a threat of nuclear war looming, Russia increasingly looking exhausted and desperate but unwilling to make concessions and a Russian default threatening, the world is again as dangerous as it was during the cold war. A default now cannot be compared with Russia’s de facto default in 1998.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – March 2022
Political risk is back. Russian aggression towards Ukraine inserts considerable amounts of uncertainty. Asset owners will in general not suffer significant direct consequences for a well-diversified portfolio, but there are potential implications for energy prices that come at a time when inflation was already making a comeback and on top of unexpected military expenditure when budgets are already charged by COVID-19-related outlays
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2022
Wait and see
Omicron surprised a world that thought COVID was almost over. Infections shot up in the EU, UK and US, reaching all-time highs, especially in France. However, while absolute levels remain high, the curves have turned and panic is abating. Death rates were little affected. -
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2022
Being sure of opinions
With all eyes on inflation, political risk is not expressed in market sentiment, perhaps with the exception of the UK. -
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2021
IPE’s sentiment statistics for 2021 are highly unusual. First, they were moving closely together, with one exception only – confidence in Japanese bonds remained an outlier throughout the year, with the gap with other areas increasing steadily.
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