All Government Bonds articles – Page 2
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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NewsSpanish pension funds mirror global market surges with 2.3% return to June 2023
Asset allocation figures show that fixed income still dominates portfolios, although in declining proportions, with an average 55.3% allocation at end-June
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Special ReportFocus returns to fixed income ETFs
Fixed income is back, baby! In the seven months to the end of July 2023, flows into European-domiciled fixed income exchange-traded funds were €39bn compared with €14bn for the same period last year, according to Morningstar.
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InterviewsInversion anxiety: what’s up with yield curves in 2023
For over half a century, each time the spread between US 10-year and three-month yields turned negative, indicating an inverted yield curve, a recession followed, sooner or later. In 2023, the yield curve has been more than just a little inverted.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Uncertainty persists
As the major central banks in developed markets reach, or at least near, the end of their hiking cycles, markets, rather than identifying when policy rates will peak, focus is now on the conundrum of just how long these policy peaks will be maintained.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: September 2023
US officials are talking up the Ukrainian advance towards Melitopol, a sign that all is not well. Contrary to expectations, the biggest problem is not the Russian air force, but land mines. Trump’s legal problems are as worrisome as his inexplicable lead among Republicans. US abstinence in the struggle against climate change is a potential cause for a major trade war as the EU realises it must expand its regulations on importing ‘dirty’ products to prevent a free rider problem undermining its climate efforts. In the UK, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives remains crushing, making it difficult to claim the government has a popular mandate.
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NewsNew recruits bring sovereign climate engagement group to $8trn AUM
New members include insurer Munich Re, pension funds LGPS Central and Rest, and the Queensland Investment Corporation
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NewsCO₂ emission reporting requirements on govvies confuse Dutch pension funds
The question whether to treat green bonds as emissions-free is proving divisive
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: August 2023
Politics is on hold until September. Normally, markets do not care and analysts reduce their activity. A political crisis in the Netherlands shows the danger. There are warnings from all sides that climate measures are ever more urgently needed. Markets need a clearer view of which products govern- ments will support with market-shaping measures and when, especially in the face of a faltering pace towards climate goals. Early signs of problems include a lack of capital for innovative start-ups and the increasingly loud voices of climate change deniers.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Strong labour markets surprise
Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, which measures the state of the US economy, has been mostly strong, although manufacturing indices have been considerably weaker than services, perhaps reflecting their greater sensitivity to higher interest rates.
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Special ReportOutlook – Europe and the world: CIOs focus on bonds and quality stocks
With the prospect of weaker growth, volatility and higher inflation and rates, strategists argue for more selectivity in investments
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2023
Continued loud bickering between the Wagner Group and the Russian army is protecting Putin from both, worsening the outlook for peace, while there are multiple signs that military supplies are approaching exhaustion. The coalition supporting Ukraine is stronger than ever, showing increasing willingness to provide military aircraft. Yet the offensive expected in February has not started. In the US, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is damaging his position with an unproductive row with Disney, while Trump has moved closer to a prison term. Gas consumption in the EU is falling faster than expected, due to efficiencies like heat pumps, changeover to electricity and solar panels. Macron scored nicely by sponsoring the participation of Zelensky at the Hiroshima G7; Sunak failed to centre political attention on China.
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NewsItaly roundup: Previndai ups exposure to corporate, government bonds
Plus: Eurofer pushes on with direct investments
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NewsIceland’s pension funds fear €1bn losses under housing bond plan
Pension fund group says on firm legal ground, and warns the government of years in court
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Asset Class ReportsPortfolio strategy – Fixed income
Last year ushered in a new era for global fixed income and credit markets. It was the worst, in terms of returns, for bond investors in years, but it signalled a regime change. Investors need to be prepared for structurally higher inflation and rates, as well as higher volatility. But for fixed income managers, this is an environment where value is easier to find. Our report looks at this new beginning for fixed income investors, and at how selectivity has become key in the high yield and loan markets.
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Asset Class ReportsFixed income – New beginning for bond investors
A painful 2022 for fixed income means attractive opportunities and a possible normalisation in risk and return
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator May 2023
Russian air superiority over Ukraine is coming to an end due to lack of equipment. Destroying civilian targets is counterproductive and consumes ammunition. Bakhmut is eating into Russian resources, while Ukraine is being re-armed. History teaches that better technology, rather than numerical superiority, wins wars. But even a lopsided Ukrainian win would not automatically mean peace.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Optimism fades on mixed data
January’s market optimism has been subsiding, as forecasts for inflation and US Federal Reserve policy shift the outlook further to the hawkish side. However, the macro picture is not clear. Markets hang on to every new piece of data to clarify the outlook, be it non-farm payrolls, the consumer price index (CPI) or the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
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Opinion PiecesAustralia: Super funds shift to fixed income
With fear of recession in Australia and globally, superannuation funds have gone into defensive mode. Cash and liquidity are two key considerations for CIOs, and some are waiting to take advantage of attractive market opportunities.
