In Depth – Page 9
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InterviewsVontobel: Builders in a changing landscape
Christel Rendu de Lint, a veteran of Swiss asset and wealth management, sees herself as a builder. This claim has justification given her track record at UBP, where she built a fixed-income capability from scratch to CHF20bn (€20.5bn) over 12 years.
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FeaturesPrivate equity firms vie for scarce institutional capital
Private equity needs to prove its ability to adapt to a vastly changed investment landscape to remain an attractive asset class for limited partners (LPs) such as pension funds and insurance groups.
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FeaturesAhead of the curve: The rise of multi-manager models for alternative investing
Fifteen years after the ‘global financial crisis’, multi-manager strategies for alternative investing have not only shaken off their tarnished reputation but have evolved
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – June 2023
*Data as of 28 April 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2023
Continued loud bickering between the Wagner Group and the Russian army is protecting Putin from both, worsening the outlook for peace, while there are multiple signs that military supplies are approaching exhaustion. The coalition supporting Ukraine is stronger than ever, showing increasing willingness to provide military aircraft. Yet the offensive expected in February has not started. In the US, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is damaging his position with an unproductive row with Disney, while Trump has moved closer to a prison term. Gas consumption in the EU is falling faster than expected, due to efficiencies like heat pumps, changeover to electricity and solar panels. Macron scored nicely by sponsoring the participation of Zelensky at the Hiroshima G7; Sunak failed to centre political attention on China.
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InterviewsLCH: The other side of the mirror
Isabelle Girolami undoubtedly has a strong background in financial services, having worked for a range of very different institutions in very different roles. She was COO at the fixed income division of BNP Paribas, before going on to a similar role at Bear Stearns, the bank that failed early in 2008 and which was subsumed into JP Morgan. Prior to her current role at LCH she was global head of markets at Crédit Agricole.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator May 2023
Russian air superiority over Ukraine is coming to an end due to lack of equipment. Destroying civilian targets is counterproductive and consumes ammunition. Bakhmut is eating into Russian resources, while Ukraine is being re-armed. History teaches that better technology, rather than numerical superiority, wins wars. But even a lopsided Ukrainian win would not automatically mean peace.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – May 2023
*Data as of 31 March 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesAhead of the curve: What happened to equity volatility in 2022 and what next?
Something strange happened last year. Expectations about the future level of volatility in US equities – implied volatility – behaved in a very unusual way. In a falling market, the price of implied volatility normally rises because equity falls are associated with a worsening macroeconomic outlook, implying more market risk. Expectations of future volatility therefore increase.
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FeaturesJapan: New hand on the tiller
Kazuo Ueda, is the first new governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 10 years. One of outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last moves was to widen the yield curve control (YCC) band on 10-year bonds from +/-25bps to +/-50bps. The reaction from the bond market over the following few days was to trade to the new upper limit.
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FeaturesEmerging markets decarbonisation
The International Energy Agency estimates that developing economies and emerging markets are responsible for more than two-thirds of global carbon emissions.
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FeaturesAhead of the curve: Introducing the concept of a carbon risk-free curve
As global investors and companies progress towards their net-zero emissions targets, the concept of a carbon risk-free curve becomes increasingly relevant within the fixed-income market. In our view, this curve should provide a reference for evaluating the risk levels of bonds in relation to their issuers’ CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e) emissions and can therefore help investors to assess the impact of changes in CO₂e emissions on the yield spread of fixed-income bonds.
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InterviewsNikko Asset Management: Complex, creative thinking
Stefanie Drews is at home with complexity. She speaks several languages fluently, including Japanese, and tells us she still does her maths in Italian.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator April 2023
With new, superior equipment, the Ukrainian military is set to start an offensive soon. Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, is jockeying to become Russia’s next kleptocrat on the back of the Russian army. Donald Trump’s candidacy is increasingly beleaguered by defeats in court. The trade agreement on Northern Ireland between the EU and the UK is a significant boon for both as well as for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, not because the trade flows are so important but because the issue blocked co-operation in many other fields. While the winter has been mild and beneficial, there are early signs of a dry spring, quite possible in view of climate change setting in. If that materialises, harvests, therefore food prices, will be affected in autumn.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – April 2023
*Data as of 28 February 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesFear and loathing in European banks
Any CEO would recognise there is a problem when investors do not want to put their money to work with you. That is the situation that European banks find themselves in. The MSCI Europe bank index has considerably underperformed its MSCI Europe parent over the last 10 years.
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FeaturesPrivate equity fundamentals resilient in headwinds
The economy and markets are beset with headwinds, and private equity assets are unlikely to be impervious. The concerns with the asset class are wide-ranging, from difficult financing conditions to rising interest rates, squeezed corporate margins and closed exit routes.
