Experts remain optimistic about the global economy reaching net zero this century, consistent with capping warming at around 2°C, a climate transition forecasting consortium commissioned by the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) has said.
Launched in 2019, every year the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) carries out a survey of hundreds of global experts’ opinions on the pace and scale of decarbonisation at economy level and across multiple sectors in 19 countries – most of the G20 plus Nigeria and Vietnam, in the case of the 2026 survey.
IPR sees itself as providing a “neutral barometer of transition expert views [that] supports the private and public sector in preparing for the most likely transition pathways”.
The 2026 forecast represents a stabilisation of expectations despite policy rollbacks in some markets, most notably the US. Last year’s survey captured a pessimistic turn among experts although sentiment was still positive about the long-term net zero transition and momentum in key sectors in the shorter term.
In the new forecast, clean energy, transport, and industry are forecasted to effectively decarbonise (>90% low-carbon technology penetration) across the majority of G20 countries by 2050.
Despite 2030 deforestation targets being missed, ending net deforestation by the end of the 2030s is now the most likely outcome in both Brazil and Indonesia.
Optimism in emerging markets continues to increase, with net zero emissions now expected five years earlier relative to the 2025 forecast, in Indonesia, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Brazil.
Nature protection continues to deteriorate, according to the IPR forecast, with 67% of the countries covered projected to fall short of 2022 commitments to safeguard 30% of land area by 2030.
Jakob Thomä, IPR’s project director, said the climate experts’ responses clearly demonstrated the transition was well underway.
“They also highlight that a single ‘global’ transition narrative has been overtaken by regional progress,” he added. “Clean technology advances and investor responses are increasingly visible in the forecasts for individual nations.
“Nature remains a lagging indicator, with 2030 targets at risk. This adds to the pressure on policymakers and investors to respond in implementing the existing commitments on nature.”
Last month, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter published a report claiming that the planet is more sensitive to the level of greenhouse gases being emitted than the accepted science suggests, and that without action to change course, warming levels of above 2°C by 2050 are likely.
The IPR consortium is led by Energy Transition Advisers & Theia Finance Labs. Analytical support is provided by Deloitte, which is part of a research partner group that includes the Climate Bonds Initiative.
The 2026 IPR forecast was funded by the Bezos Earth Fund, Fitch Ratings, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Temasek and Howden.
