All articles by Peter Kraneveld
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Opinion PiecesViewpoint: Is a government like a business?
Peter Kraneveld argues that governments need to learn and accept the differences between government and private business
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - May 2025: US markets lose their wings
Markets have been gyrating wildly with Trump’s on-again-off-again trade wars, but resistance is building
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - June 2025
At last, we have some clarity about the nature of ‘Trump risk’ – it is about uncertainty and growth. Markets are signalling that the US president’s on-again-off-again policies are a threat to growth and stoking inflation even if his threats are not implemented.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - April 2025
Since 1900, the US has waged numerous wars but has won only three without allies. This is the sobering background for recent US geopolitical policy moves: changing sides from Ukraine to Russia, interfering in German elections and behaviour at the NATO ministerial meeting.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2025
Political risk has risen to boiling point. Donald Trump’s talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, without as much as a Ukrainian presence, left the US without allies or credibility, especially in Europe.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2025
The erosion in trust in the US is promoted by its refusal to participate in a proposed trigger force in Ukraine. In response, European defence expenses are rising, in particular in Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2025: hard to pick short-term winners
IPE’s latest manager expectations survey finds high net sentiment across most main asset classes as allocators weigh the Trump trade
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2024
Bond expectations falling, equity mostly flat
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2024
Donald Trump has profited from climate change, which he believes unimportant, as this year’s hurricane season has so far seen more storms over a wider area.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2024
In generic US polls, Democrats beat Republicans, with a small but increasing margin, signalling an opportunity for reforms if Kamala Harris wins and a continuation of a divided and blocked Congress if Donald Trump wins.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - September 2024
Kamala Harris’ candidacy has turned the political mood in the US. The two candidates are very close together in the polls but while Trump’s score is stable – except for a worsening favourability – Harris’ statistics all show a positive trend.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - July 2024
Both US presidential candidates are slowly losing popularity, while staying very close in the polls. Trump seems to have more trouble than Biden getting through to the undecided. Trump’s legal troubles may yet hinder his candidacy, in particular among independents.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - August 2024
Joe Biden’s weakness was a lucky stroke for Donald Trump, who has shown similar symptoms for years. It remains to be seen what effect Kamala Harris has on the polls. Trump and his chosen VP are both proponents of weakening the USD.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - June 2024
Trump and Biden are both losing to undecided voters, a group that is now unusually large and may be sensitive to Trump’s legal troubles. Biden’s approval rate is below his score in presidential polls, while Trump’s score is the same in presidential polls and those measuring voters’ opinion of him. In the UK, the Conservatives took another drubbing in the local elections.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - May 2024
EU parliamentary elections are approaching fast. Current polls predict a shift to the right, with the current centrist parties remaining dominant and the extremist right overtaking the Eurosceptics. US President Donald Trump is still liable to be convicted in a criminal case, but his poll figures are rising.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - April 2024
The shadow of the US presidential elections is longer than normal because Trump is under several legal clouds. He could still get barred from participating but that seems unlikely. He does have a liquidity problem, a self-destructive streak, a mercurial character and no credible alternative waiting in the wings, though.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2024
Climate change is coming to a trend break as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2024
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2024
It is safe to predict that 2024 will be a year of desperate campaigning. Political surprises in the US and UK are possible and, this time, they do make a difference to markets
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
