IPE Expectations Indicator
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FeaturesIPE Expectations Indicator – June 2026: Politics are trumping growth prospects
The US war in Iran is suffering from unexpected consequences. Oil companies look like short-term winners, long term losers and they are vulnerable to windfall profit taxes. US enterprises, not subject to pressure to limit CO2 are more vulnerable, but internationals around the globe profit from being better prepared.
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FeaturesIPE Expectations Indicator – May 2026: Equity favoured over bonds in all regions except the UK
Net equity sentiment bond expectations are up in all areas and analysts see growth prospects in all regions
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – April 2026: repercussions of war in Iran
Managers expect continued pressure on equity markets, as the wider effects of the Iran war are felt both in terms of sentiment and actual growth
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2026
Asset allocation Net equity sentiment statistics have been up generally for several months in succession. The scores are again closely bunched together. There is clear optimism in the figures, which have yet to reflect the impact from the hostilities in the Middle East, such as the threat of spiralling inflation. ...
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – January 2026: Equities win managers’ vote
The pessimism around equities prevailing last summer has evaporated
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2026: confidence inspires risk-on behaviour
With inflation seemingly under control, and the threat of trade war retrenching, the prospects for equities are positive across the board
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – December 2025: Uncertainty receding
With Trump losing support domestically, the economy is expected to growh
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – November 2025: Exuberance re-visited
Global equity optimism rises despite political turmoil and supply-chain risks
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – October 2025: Views converge amid uncertainty
Though very few analysts expect equities and bonds to fall across the board, with the exception of Japan, the ‘neutral’ vote is very high
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – September 2025: The sky is falling, just not right now
Neutral positioning of analysts over the summer masks an overall pessimistic mood
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – August 2025
Trump’s attempts to undermine international trade and the US Federal Reserve are turning analysts against US assets, while good news out of Europe reinforce the case for appreciation of European assets
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - July 2025
US President Donald Trump remains the main source of global political risk. In recent weeks, he has ramped up pressure on Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine while the success of his interventions in Israel’s dual conflicts with Hamas and Iran is uncertain.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - May 2025: US markets lose their wings
Markets have been gyrating wildly with Trump’s on-again-off-again trade wars, but resistance is building
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - June 2025
At last, we have some clarity about the nature of ‘Trump risk’ – it is about uncertainty and growth. Markets are signalling that the US president’s on-again-off-again policies are a threat to growth and stoking inflation even if his threats are not implemented.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - April 2025
Since 1900, the US has waged numerous wars but has won only three without allies. This is the sobering background for recent US geopolitical policy moves: changing sides from Ukraine to Russia, interfering in German elections and behaviour at the NATO ministerial meeting.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2025
Political risk has risen to boiling point. Donald Trump’s talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, without as much as a Ukrainian presence, left the US without allies or credibility, especially in Europe.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2025
The erosion in trust in the US is promoted by its refusal to participate in a proposed trigger force in Ukraine. In response, European defence expenses are rising, in particular in Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2025: hard to pick short-term winners
IPE’s latest manager expectations survey finds high net sentiment across most main asset classes as allocators weigh the Trump trade
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2024
Bond expectations falling, equity mostly flat
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2024
Donald Trump has profited from climate change, which he believes unimportant, as this year’s hurricane season has so far seen more storms over a wider area.
