Peter Kraneveld
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - April 2024
The shadow of the US presidential elections is longer than normal because Trump is under several legal clouds. He could still get barred from participating but that seems unlikely. He does have a liquidity problem, a self-destructive streak, a mercurial character and no credible alternative waiting in the wings, though.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2024
Climate change is coming to a trend break as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2024
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2024
It is safe to predict that 2024 will be a year of desperate campaigning. Political surprises in the US and UK are possible and, this time, they do make a difference to markets
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2023
The Russian war in the Ukraine is still stalling, with the prelude of the US elections coming closer. Trump’s self-destructive utterings keep his followers unmoved but do nothing to convince independents.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: September 2023
US officials are talking up the Ukrainian advance towards Melitopol, a sign that all is not well. Contrary to expectations, the biggest problem is not the Russian air force, but land mines. Trump’s legal problems are as worrisome as his inexplicable lead among Republicans. US abstinence in the struggle against climate change is a potential cause for a major trade war as the EU realises it must expand its regulations on importing ‘dirty’ products to prevent a free rider problem undermining its climate efforts. In the UK, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives remains crushing, making it difficult to claim the government has a popular mandate.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: July 2023
The war in Ukraine is starting to look like a stalemate. This would be in Russia’s favour. Delivery to Ukraine of more of the tanks promised or fighters to contest Russian air control might lead to a breakthrough, but is unlikely to happen in the summer. In the US, Trump looks like a leading but weak candidate for the Republicans, even against a Democrat as unpopular as Biden. Legal pushbacks against the fight to prevent permanent climate change, notably in Texas, have the potential to cause a trade war with the EU. They illustrate how European and North American values are slowly drifting apart.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: August 2023
Politics is on hold until September. Normally, markets do not care and analysts reduce their activity. A political crisis in the Netherlands shows the danger. There are warnings from all sides that climate measures are ever more urgently needed. Markets need a clearer view of which products govern- ments will support with market-shaping measures and when, especially in the face of a faltering pace towards climate goals. Early signs of problems include a lack of capital for innovative start-ups and the increasingly loud voices of climate change deniers.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2023
Continued loud bickering between the Wagner Group and the Russian army is protecting Putin from both, worsening the outlook for peace, while there are multiple signs that military supplies are approaching exhaustion. The coalition supporting Ukraine is stronger than ever, showing increasing willingness to provide military aircraft. Yet the offensive expected in February has not started. In the US, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is damaging his position with an unproductive row with Disney, while Trump has moved closer to a prison term. Gas consumption in the EU is falling faster than expected, due to efficiencies like heat pumps, changeover to electricity and solar panels. Macron scored nicely by sponsoring the participation of Zelensky at the Hiroshima G7; Sunak failed to centre political attention on China.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator May 2023
Russian air superiority over Ukraine is coming to an end due to lack of equipment. Destroying civilian targets is counterproductive and consumes ammunition. Bakhmut is eating into Russian resources, while Ukraine is being re-armed. History teaches that better technology, rather than numerical superiority, wins wars. But even a lopsided Ukrainian win would not automatically mean peace.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator April 2023
With new, superior equipment, the Ukrainian military is set to start an offensive soon. Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, is jockeying to become Russia’s next kleptocrat on the back of the Russian army. Donald Trump’s candidacy is increasingly beleaguered by defeats in court. The trade agreement on Northern Ireland between the EU and the UK is a significant boon for both as well as for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, not because the trade flows are so important but because the issue blocked co-operation in many other fields. While the winter has been mild and beneficial, there are early signs of a dry spring, quite possible in view of climate change setting in. If that materialises, harvests, therefore food prices, will be affected in autumn.
Opinion PiecesViewpoint: The power of prioritisation
When you can’t decide on return and risk, you think of the window of light
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator March 2023
The next Ukrainian offensive will be in April at the earliest, as modern tanks will have arrived by then. US Republican pushback of ESG and climate-related investments are a new bone of contention in relations with the EU, already strained by the Trump presidency, and a bad sign for US-EU co-operation on China policy, an issue Japan seems to be ducking successfully. Aided by a soft winter, EU energy concerns have become quite manageable.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: February 2023
Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians are hampered by efficient air defence. With weapons for the Ukrainian military on the way, a new offensive seems imminent. US President Joe Biden’s troubles over classified documents are a relief for Republicans. The threat of a US-EU trade conflict over China is growing as both sides retreat into nationalistic behaviour. In the UK, Conservatives are under threat of predicted historic losses, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak so far has done nothing to repair relations with the EU.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2023
Better air defence and the ground freezing over are steadily improving the outlook for Ukraine’s forces, now locked in stalemate. A series of blunders haunts US Republicans in general and Trump in particular. If Biden’s stimulus package is enacted, it will counteract Fed policy, possibly prolonging the series of interest rate increases. The EU seems to have bought too much gas. It has agreed to take border measures against some products from climate change laggard countries.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: December 2022
The Ukrainian offensives look to have petered out and a new initiative will be needed to maintain morale. The US government is once again gridlocked and another debt ceiling fight is likely. The EU seems ready even for a harsh winter, but there are signs of war fatigue. In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has apparently learned from the Liz Truss debacle, quickly making the necessary political U-turns, in particular on climate change. Expectations for the COP27 meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh were low. Analyst views indicate increasing belief that the wave of interest rate increases is receding.
- Features
IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2022
In general, political risk remained the same, except in the UK. The Russian offensive against Ukrainian civil infrastructure is useless. If it should succeed, Russia has no means to exploit it militarily. Ukraine is set to recover Kherson. In the EU, France is trying to cope with a vicious strike that blocks petrol deliveries, but its side effect is a push towards hybrid and non-petrol cars. Japan is worried over implicit North Korean nuclear threats. In the UK political risk has increased fast with a crisis caused by government tax plans that has sapped trust on several levels. The data indicate that analysts believe that the wave of interest rate increases is near (if not over) its top and that bonds are now becoming more attractive than equities for the first time in many years.
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: monthly commentary
Political risk has decreased. An attack in the north-east of Ukraine took the Russian army by surprise but did not cause collateral damage in Russia. Russians’ resistance to the war is mounting but far from a critical level. It looks like the EU will survive the winter without major energy disruption and caps on energy prices are falling into place.
