All articles by Caroline Hay – Page 3
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Reality gap widens
August 2020 saw the US Treasury market post one of its worst monthly performances since November 2016, while global equities, led by the US, reached new highs.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Still facing anxious times
Developed market government bond yields have spent the summer drifting lower as risk assets traded better. However, this benign climate has not lifted the fog of confusion caused by COVID-19.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Dismay sets in
As lockdowns ease, particularly in the northern hemisphere and the Antipodes, economic recoveries get underway. Given the exceptional circumstances, economic forecasts and predictions may show little consensus, or potentially be wrong, the puzzling US payroll announcements for May being a vivid example.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Unprecedented times
According to a Wall Street Journal blog, the word “unprecedented” was used in 395 of the publication’s articles in the past three months. Also popular were massive, enormous, staggering and eye-popping
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AnalysisFixed income, rates, currencies: Thinking on one’s feet
The enormous scale of national lockdowns has made it hard to keep abreast of all the extraordinary monetary interventions and fiscal support packages worldwide.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Global economy under pressure
At the end of February, after a week that saw stock markets around the world plummet, US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell sought to calm fears, saying that the Fed would “act as appropriate” to support growth.
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AnalysisFixed income, rates, currencies: China’s woe hits rest of world
While the speed and breadth of the spread of infection was unknown, it was apparent that the outbreak of the new coronavirus, named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO), would cause considerable disruption to economic activity in China.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: A confident start to the year
Undoubtedly a good year for financial assets, 2019 ended on a bright note with the broad, and relieved, consensus that the China/US trade conflict might be de-escalating
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Better than expected
Although packed with geopolitical surprises 2019 turned out to be better than expected for financial assets. Equities and bonds rallied together reversing last year’s ‘unusual occurrence’ of both performing badly.
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FeaturesAsset Allocation: Good news buoys risk markets
Several factors have given risk markets a boost and propelled risk-free rates higher. These include diminishing fears of an economic slowdown, a potential rapprochement in trade negotiations and a reduced risk of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Clouded by uncertainty
It was predictable that risk markets should have reacted positively to the news of an agreement in principle in the US-China trade negotiations. Although assuredly better than a seemingly relentless stream of bad will between the protagonists, the provisional agreement is in no way a solution to the conflict. Another round of trade talks could be necessary just to reach a tentative accord. Investors would be wise to temper enthusiasm to extrapolate the ‘good news’ too far.
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FeaturesEverything is still possible
Markets are on edge as a result of difficult economic and geopolitical forces. Risks are still skewed to the downside. Trade tensions have not abated, rather there is a possibility of further escalation in the future, which looks like reducing investment, and damaging already apprehensive outlooks.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: A bleak outcome
This year’s summer tensions in shallow markets have again been apparent. The fallout from the trade dispute between China and the US is having a global impact. Together with economic weakness almost everywhere, a global policy easing cycle could be imminent.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Nervousness abounds
The weak US non-farm payroll (NFP) data for May, far below forecasts, sent rates falling and stocks rising, on the supposition that it raised the likelihood of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, while risk markets cheered the prospect of easier money, the hardline approach taken by the US towards China, and China’s uncompromising responses are raising investor nervousness.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Politics remains the bellwether
Financial markets continue to be influenced by news, and tweets, about the US-China trade negotiations. While stock markets have sold off during the second quarter of 2019, and credit spreads have widened, this financial tightening is so far less than what happened over the last few months of 2018.
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FeaturesFixed Income: Markets take nervous turn
Almost every asset class did well in the first quarter of 2019
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Markets take nervous turn
The reaction and aftermath to the US Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot appears to be more focused on the monetary policy news itself and the ‘fuel’ of easy money.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Global economic discomfort
Fed’s wait-and-see approach to monetary policy adds to contradictary signals
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Clouds to darken further
Markets have pulled back from US rate hike forecasts; Euro credit looks set to be most vulnerable to quantative tightening; The European elections in May look set to see a surge in support for populist parties
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Hope but also fears for 2019
US domestic investors hold healthy stock market profits after a decade-long bull run Geopolitics on many fronts point to tumultuous times ahead
