All articles by Caroline Hay – Page 5
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
Bond yields have been rising, which is not that surprising given that sharp sell-offs in government markets have been reasonably frequent in the multi-year bull-run
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
In most elections, pollsters do their best to gauge voting intentions. However, until the votes are cast, experience has shown that exercising a more cautious pre-election stance is probably advised
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Special Report
Euro-Zone: Unquantifiable QE
The effects of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme are yet to be quantified, leading some to think of it as the world’s biggest ‘experiment’. Caroline Hay reports
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
Eight years since the banking system threatened collapse, financial markets are still dominated by central banks. Though macro fundamentals, and geopolitics, still have the capacity to influence flows, interest rates are largely being driven by the central banks’ actions.
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
Uninspiring macro economic data releases are accepted as the norm, often with less bad economic news received positively because it was not as dire as the consensus had expected
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
While geopolitics and plain vanilla politics have been exerting huge influences on markets as we head towards summer, the macro news has continued to range from lacklustre to disappointingly poor
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
As 2016 opened, the fate of emerging market assets was tied to fears of renminbi devaluation and the collapse in commodity prices. Now market focus has moved, and with a bounce in commodities it is Chinese economic news, as well as the ever-important Fed pronouncements, that determine mood.
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
The quite well anticipated easing from the European Central Bank (ECB), followed by the US Federal Reserve’s more surprising lowering of its expectation ‘dots’, proved supportive for risk assets as the first quarter of 2016 ended
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
It might have been pardonable to hope for a steady start for capital markets in 2016 after the Fed’s smooth execution of its first interest rate hike in nearly a decade
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
Global economic growth stuttered badly during 2015, as China and other emerging markets struggled to keep going
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
Risk markets have regained their poise after the China-triggered summer sell-offs, the mood aided by Chinese interest rate easing and the prospect of more European liquidity. The oil price, having fluctuated, appears to be finding an equilibrium which, given its proxy as a barometer of risk, may signal a pick-up in risk appetite.
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
The US Federal Reserve’s decision in September not to hike rates, along with its comments about soft inflation trends and global developments, surprised the markets with its dovishness. However, although rates fell across the curve and the dollar weakened, equities and other risk assets have not taken much solace from these easier financial conditions.
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Special Report
Euro-zone Outlook: Buffeted by headwinds
The outlook for Europe’s bond markets cannot be separated from the situation in the wider world, says Caroline Hay
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
Another summer passes with huge market moves and chaotic trading days. China’s stock markets ‘wobbles’ are still ongoing, and while emerging markets – especially in Asia – are still being sorely buffeted, more developed markets have attained some degree of calm.
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
The plunge in China’s stock market in July was dramatic. There is still debate about how worried global investors ought to be
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
This year looks like it could be remembered as the Bund sell-off year, or perhaps even the Bund Blowback, with one of the intraday price falls larger than any recorded (by Bloomberg) in the past quarter century
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FeaturesAsset allocation: The big picture
Are strong equity markets signalling an optimistic outlook for economic growth? Possibly, although economic data – particularly from the US and China – has been pretty disappointing since the start of this year. This year’s strong equity performance may have more to do with the fact that money remains extremely easy and economic growth, although dull, remains steady.
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
Although the severe winter did have a significant impact on US economic activity in the first quarter, the strength of the headwinds from a stronger dollar and the collapse in capital spending within the energy sector have also taken their toll
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
As the US economy continues to recover, the hour when the Fed starts to tighten is approaching
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Features
Asset Allocation: Fixed income, Rates, Currencies - The big picture
Getting the big picture right always helps and sometimes it makes subsequent investment decision-making blindingly obvious. But so often there seem to be diametrically opposed eventualities, with ambiguity everywhere. The dramatic fall in the oil price, for example, is creating plenty of puzzlement.
