Peter Laurelli

Vice-president, global head of research, eVestment

  • bearish us bond sentiment continues to rise
    Features

    IPE Expectation Indicator: February 2019

    February 2019 (Magazine)

    The end of 2018 saw expectations shift meaningfully in certain markets, and then pause. It also saw trends accelerate, then pause. For most of us, the pauses were welcome, because the shifts were related to broad market plans

  • net dollar bearishness continues
    Features

    IPE Expectation Indicator: January 2019

    January 2019 (magazine)

    Net dollar bearishness continues

  • ipe expectations indicator july august 2018
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator: July/August 2018

    July/August 2018 (magazine)

    As often in high summer, storms – in the form of volatility – may be on the horizon

  • expectations indicator june 2018
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator: June 2018

    June 2018 (magazine)

    This month’s IPE Expectations Indicator poll sees no change in some areas, some change in others, and a continuation of a long-term trend, which is, in itself, both a change and not a change.

  • currencies 2
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator: April 2018

    April 2018 (magazine)

    The influx of pessimism in the prior survey has not carried over into this month

  • equities 3
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator: March 2018

    March 2018 (magazine)

    What does one expect to happen when positive sentiment declines across the board? What we know is that near universal sentiment movements do not happen often

  • feb 18 expectations index
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator: February 2018

    February 2018 (magazine)

    Given the similarities between the February 2018 and February 2017 expectations surveys, it may be appropriate to wish everyone a ‘happy same year’

  • ipe expectations indicator january 2018
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator: January 2018

    January 2018 (magazine)

    It would be an understatement to say the shine has left the US equity market, given this month’s manager expectation submissions

  • ipe expectations indicator december 2017
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator: December 2017

    December 2017 (Magazine)

    This survey has rarely found such consensus among asset managers as we see in this month’s survey. Virtually no manager expects euro-zone equities to fall or euro bond prices to rise

  • ipe expectations indicator november 2017
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator November 2017

    November 2017 (Magazine)

    Just when some major themes seemed to be on pause, managers’ expectations crept into rarified territory, while in others themes in place since at least 2014 have gathered momentum. Whether valuation extremes are appropriate, managers believe they will continue.

  • ipe expectations indicator september 2017
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator September 2017

    September 2017 (Magazine)

    Investment managers’ expectations have been welcomingly accurate throughout the year. For example, positive sentiment toward European equities began to rise sharply near the end of 2016, followed by a roughly 20% rise in 2017. Additionally, expectations for dollar strength have been falling since January, and the dollar index (DXY) was down nearly 10% year-to-date through the recent survey period. What are managers’ views as we enter the second half of 2017?

  • expectations june 2017
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator June 2017

    June 2017 (Magazine)

    When fewer than one in 10 respondents expects something to happen, it is hard to accept it could happen. There is an increased number of such instances in the most recent IPE Asset Manager Expectations poll.

  • equities may 2017
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator May 2017

    May 2017 (Magazine)

    A key metric for interpreting manager expectations is the difference between those expecting a rise and those expecting a fall. Having data to analyse, trends, trend shifts and historical highs and lows helps make things clearer. While there are many themes worth noting, there is only one universally negative point, which is historically low and in a strong downtrend.

  • ipe expectations indicator april 2017 currencies 2
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator April 2017

    April 2017 (Magazine)

    The latest manager poll has two main themes: markets are weak and levels of sentiment are extreme.

  • bonds oct 2016
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator October 2016

    October 2016 (Magazine)

    The current survey period captured the end of the summer. The number of managers voicing concern about interest rate policy is high. However, the current environment has yet to reflect the alarms of many major investors and the survey results indicate most managers expect little dramatic near-term movement. Whether it is not yet the season for action, or investors expect the status quo to continue, is yet unclear.

  • japan equities dec 2016
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator September 2016

    September 2016 (Online)

    As time passes since the UK’s decision to leave the EU, some of the trends of the months prior have returned. This includes: outperforming US equity markets and dwindling faith in US dollar strength against the euro and yen (albeit with some volatility) and in sterling, which continues to drift lower after its post-Brexit decline. Whether managers’ expectations have recovered as quickly as these trends is the subject of this month’s review.

  • dollar euro aug 2016
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator August 2016

    August 2016 (Online)

    The expectation survey for August was completed in a post-Brexit market environment in which uncertainty was high, but cooler heads ultimately prevailed. Initial reactions caused a rebound in USD strength and an equity market sell-off, which was ultimately short-lived. Nevertheless, disrupted markets will influence expectations and results from the survey reflect managers’ concerns towards riskier assets.

  • uk equities jul 2016
    Features

    IPE Expectations Indicator July 2016

    July / August 2016 (Magazine)

    During the survey period, managers experienced a different environment than during the two prior months. The dollar reversed its weakening trend, and commodity prices diverged as oil prices rose, metals’ declined, and coming screaming to the forefront of geopolitical headlines was the Brexit vote.